As we head into the final stretch of the presidential election, it remains a toss-up, but all things considered, you'd rather be Vice President Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.
With Americans who typically tune out politics starting to take a serious look at the race after Labor Day, Harris has moved into a narrow lead in national polls and is showing momentum in key swing states, including some that seemed out of reach earlier this year.
Harris is extending her lead among women and widening the gender gap, even as Trump flails.
Still, Trump has a path to victory thanks to the Electoral College, which gives him more leeway thanks to the uneven distribution of Republicans and Democrats.
The latest ABC/Ipsos poll gives Harris a lead among likely voters — 52% to 46%, while a new USA Today/Suffolk poll out Tuesday has her leading Trump, 47.6% to 43.3%. Both leads are outside the margin of error.
A deeper dive into the numbers provides even better news for the Harris campaign. Multiple polls have shown a surge in Democratic enthusiasm, and the latest Suffolk poll shows that the excitement also extends to down-ballot races. She has also cut deeply into Trump’s advantage on key issues, including the economy, immigration and national security. She's also very strong on her own turf. On health care and race relations, Harris leads Trump by 14 points and 19 points, respectively.
Perhaps most dramatically, Harris is extending her lead among women and widening the gender gap, even as Trump flails, fidgets and flip-flops on abortion and IVF treatment. The ABC/Ipsos poll found that Harris now leads by 13 points among women, 54% to 41%, up from a 6-point preconvention lead.
Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, also continues to dramatically outpoll Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance. In the ABC poll, Walz has a 42% to 31% favorability rating, while Vance is underwater by a margin of 32% to 44%.
None of this means that the race is anywhere close to being over.
Harris has put several Sun Belt states — Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina — back into play. And recent polls show a close race (with a narrow edge to Harris) in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
But Democrats are being cautioned about the campaign that is still to come. In a memo Sunday, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote: “[M]ake no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs. Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020.”
Harris is ahead but she is still an underdog. She has 62 days to solidify that lead.