Calling Balls and Strikes

With three weeks to go and early voting reaching record numbers, the campaigns are circling around their drastically disparate final pitches to voters. This week, MSNBC political analyst Elise Jordan joins former Senator Claire McCaskill to highlightTrump’s stark vision of the “enemies from within”, while Harris speaks to the center- and a combative Bret Baier on Fox News. Then, Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii lays out the vice president’s framework to ease the housing crisis, what it means to go from NIMBY to YIMBY, and the importance of creating generational wealth for the next era of homebuyers. And lastly, Claire and Elise get to the heart of who to trust in the era of foreign interference, deepfakes and Trumpery.

Further Reading: Here is the Washington Post piece Claire and Elise spoke about that shares how to spot deepfakes as the election nears: AI is spawning a flood of fake Trump and Harris voices. Here’s how to tell what’s real.

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Note: This is a rough transcript. Please excuse any typos.

Claire McCaskill: Hello and welcome to How to Win 2024.

It’s Thursday morning, October 17th. I’m Claire McCaskill, and I’m really pleased to be here with my guest co-pilot once again today, Elise Jordan. She’s an MSNBC political analyst, contributor to Time Magazine, a former aide to the George W. Bush White House and State Departments.

Hey, Elise, welcome back.

Elise Jordan: Thanks so much for having me, Claire.

Claire McCaskill: Okay, it’s close. We are now, if you are running for a major office in this country, these are the days when you lose count of what’s going on. You lose track of what time it is. You lose track of what city you’re in. You lose track of how much sleep you’ve had. It is really a grueling, grueling — the last three weeks of a campaign are really, really hard. And we’re right in the middle of that. She’s continuing her media blitz, and Trump continues with, well, with his stuff.

Elise Jordan: Dancing.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. I don’t even think it’s fair to dancing to call it that.

Well, look where the campaigns are focusing three weeks out and how much voters are embracing early voting. And in a bit, Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii will stop by to share some details on Vice President Harris’s plan of increased access to housing. And we’re going to talk a little inside baseball and get some scoop on what he thinks about the Senate races.

And before we wrap up today, Elise and I want to spotlight an issue that is really important in these last few weeks. It’s a matter of trust. When Trump tells you what he’s planning in a second term, should you believe him? And can you believe your eyes and ears when it comes to election deepfakes generated by AI?

But first, if we were in the room.

(Begin Clip)

Donald Trump: Let’s not do any more questions. Let’s just listen to music. Let’s make it into a music. Who the hell wants to hear questions? Right?

(Clip of “Ave Maria”)

(End Clip)

Claire McCaskill: Well, if I were in the room, I’d be trying to understand what the hell just happened. You know, he took three or four questions. A couple people fainted, which they do often at his rallies, because frankly, I don’t think he wants to pay for air conditioning. After the emergency personnel come in and revive the folks that have fainted and remove them, instead of going back to questions, he decided to play the most bizarre playlist.

Elise Jordan: So odd.

Claire McCaskill: Odd? “Purple Rain.” “Dixie.” It was such a mix. And “Ave Maria.”

Elise Jordan: “Hallelujah.”

Claire McCaskill: “Hallelujah,” by the way. Once again, he’s in hot water with these artists. Can you imagine what Prince would do if he were still alive?

Elise Jordan: Oh, man, he’s rolling in his grave for sure.

Claire McCaskill: Oh, Prince would be so pissed off.

Elise Jordan: I just couldn’t believe it went on for so long.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah.

Elise Jordan: That’s frankly what surprised me. I mean, five minutes of dancing would have been weird enough, but to go almost 40 minutes, and he’s not really even dancing, he’s just kind of bopping awkwardly. It just, it really made me think he’s losing his grip in a big way.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, and I think we ought to touch on a couple of things. Trump has really spent a significant amount of time lately not just trying to scare everyone to death and lying about the amount of crime committed by folks that have been released pending hearings on asylum, but he also has really gotten into this, “We’ve got to go after the enemies within.” We’ve even gone so far as to say that the problem in America is Americans who disagree with him rather than Russia and China.

(Begin Clip)

Donald Trump: We have two enemies. We have the outside enemy, and then we have the enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangerous than China, Russia, and all these countries, because if you have a smart president, he can handle it. I think it’s tougher to handle these lunatics that we have inside, like Adam Schiff, Adam Shifty Schiff. Think of this guy’s going to be a senator.

(End Clip)

Claire McCaskill: I think it’s important. I thought Kamala Harris’s interview with Fox was pretty good yesterday. What did you think, Elise?

Elise Jordan: I thought she was strong, and I think that showing up in the case of that interview was 90 percent of it. She’s showing that she will go to new audiences. She’s not scared of Fox News, and she sat there and looked strong, answered every question, took his incoming, and, you know, Brett Baier, I’ve never seen him take that tone interviewing in his entire career. And I’ve been following him for decades now, and she was unflappable. And I think that by doing that, it shows such a contrast to Donald Trump, who could not sit down with an MSNBC anchor any day of the week.

Claire McCaskill: No. And once again, I think she helped herself with women, and Brett Baier helped her with women, because we’ve all been talked over. We’ve all been interrupted. We’ve all been mansplained, too, when we were just trying to make a point.

(Begin Clip)

Brett Baier: But do you — just a number. Do you think it’s one million, three million?

Vice President Kamala Harris: Brett, let’s just get to the point.

Brett Baier: So your homeland security secretary said that 85 percent of apprehensions —

Vice President Kamala Harris: But, I’m not finished. I’m not finished. We have a — we have an immigration system —

Brett Baier: It’s a rough estimate of six million people have been released into the country. And let me just finish. I’ll get to the question. I promise you.

Vice President Kamala Harris: And I was beginning to answer. May I please finish —

Brett Baier: And when you came to the —

Vice President Kamala Harris: May I finish? May I finish responding, please?

(End Clip)

Claire McCaskill: I thought he really was rude in how he conducted that interview. And I thought her strongest moment is when she called him out on selectively editing. And that’s why I got to this point. She was able to point out that they had selectively edited the clip with Harris Faulkner, when he said, “They’re evil. They’re the enemy within.” And when she looked at Brett Baier, she goes, “You know it, and I know it.”

(Begin Clip)

Vice President Kamala Harris: And with all due respect, that clip was not what he has been saying about the enemy within that he has repeated when he’s speaking about the American people. That’s not what you just showed.

Brett Baier: He was asked about that specific —

Vice President Kamala Harris: No, no, no. That’s not what you just showed, in all fairness and respect to you.

Brett Baier: No, no, no. I’m telling you that was the question that we asked him.

Vice President Kamala Harris: You didn’t show that. And here’s the bottom line. He has repeated it many times. And you and I both know that. And you and I both know that he has talked about turning the American military on the American people. He has talked about going after people who are engaged in peaceful protest. He has talked about locking people up because they disagree with him.

This is a democracy. And in a democracy, the president of the United States, in the United States of America, should be willing to be able to handle criticism without saying he’d lock people up for doing it.

(End Clip)

Claire McCaskill:  I mean, and you could see in his face that, yeah, he did know it.

Elise Jordan: He knew. He knew that Trump is doing this over and over again. And then, of course, everybody is aware at Fox News that Trump did this specifically last Sunday with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News when he said he would bring the military after people who opposed him politically, the National Guard and the military.

Claire McCaskill: I mean, this is crazy town.

Elise Jordan: And do you remember when Laura Ingraham, she gave him three opportunities to walk back --

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. 

Elise Jordan: His retribution? And he wouldn’t do it.

Claire McCaskill:  No.

Elise Jordan: This is clearly something that he is planning on doing. It obviously is not something his advisors are saying, “Oh, let’s go out and talk about political retribution today and jailing up your enemies instead of the economy.” This is him. This is who he is. And this is what he is planning on doing.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. And by the way, he’s going after big cities everywhere he goes, even in the city, attacks Detroit and Detroit, busy attacking Philadelphia, Milwaukee. I’m wondering how that’s going to work out for him. And then she is busy grabbing the middle, which is what she should do. She doesn’t need to be hanging out anywhere but firmly in the middle right now. She’s got plenty of room to do that. And she also can unhook from Biden, which I was really grateful to see —

Elise Jordan: Yes.

Claire McCaskill: That she did that yesterday also.

(Begin Clip)

Vice President Kamala Harris: My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency. I will bring my life experiences, my professional experiences and fresh and new ideas. I represent a new generation of leadership.

(End Clip)

Elise Jordan: Finally, I think she’s been a little too polite, and kind, and not ruthless enough when it comes to separating herself from Joe Biden. And at least it seems like these last three weeks, she’s willing to do it and she’s willing to do what she has to do to win.

Claire McCaskill: Okay, so what about early voting? If you were in the room, what would you be telling them?

Elise Jordan: So early voting began in Georgia this week, and it’s opening up in over 30 states around the country. And Georgia’s really breaking records. I mean, it was tremendous. According to the Georgia Secretary of State, the numbers were just bananas. As of Tuesday, October 15th, just over 310,000 Georgia voters had already cast their votes during early voting. And this is so important for Democratic turnout and it’s a really good measure of enthusiasm, frankly.

So if I’m the Kamala Harris campaign, I’m feeling very good about that because the numbers are just up from what we saw, you know, early voting in 2018 and then 2020 election. And then this beats what was the first day of early voting in 2022 also, which was around 134,000 voters.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, and they’ve got a problem on their side because they keep trying to tell everybody to use early voting. And then Trump says not to. And then he says, well, maybe you should. And then he says not to. I noticed yesterday Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia was telling everybody she’d already voted. So clearly they’re trying to virtue signal early voting. But they’ve kind of screwed that up for themselves because they’ve spent way too much time talking about that any kind of voting other than standing in a room with your hand up is somehow rigged.

Elise Jordan: It’s very hard to dig out of that hole now because when he says it and he adamantly said it in 2022, he really just hasn’t gotten out of that fix yet.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. You know, half the voters will have voted by Election Day. That’s crazy when you think about it.

Elise Jordan: Yes. So according to a new NBC poll, Vice President Harris has a 17-point lead among those who are going to vote before Election Day. So huge turnout early voting before Election Day. That’s definitely a positive sign for Kamala Harris’s campaign.

And you look at those counties, you know, Fulton, Cobb County, even Forsyth County, where Donald Trump went for that fake women’s town hall with a bunch of Republican women who actually pressed him on abortion as a basic women’s right. These suburban voters, are they going to peel away enough in force? It really, Georgia is just fascinating to me.

Claire McCaskill: By the way, the judges in Georgia, the Supreme Court, I think we should mention this before we leave the room because this is important what they’re talking about. Because now if you’re in the room, you’re not only talking about what you need to do between now and Election Day, you’re talking about what you have to do after Election Day to make sure there are not any shenanigans in counting and certifying the vote. Because we know Trump has put more resources ever than ever before in history into this idea.

I mean, over 190 lawsuits have been filed around the country setting up their arguments for trying to claim that the American voters didn’t vote the way they voted. The Georgia court basically struck down all the bullshit that this election board had put in place. They struck down the ability of local election authorities to not certify. They said, no, you got to certify. If there’s evidence of wrongdoing, you give it to the DA, give it to the prosecutor. That will be pursued. Those channels will be followed. But you’ve got to certify.

They said no hand counting. Basically, they’ve been able to really strike down almost all of the things that we were so concerned about that this obviously MAGA election board tried to put in place before the election.

Elise Jordan: The courts worked. You know, this is a political strategy more than a legal strategy. The Trump campaign flooding the zone with all of these election lawsuits, and they know there’s not going to be much likelihood of success often in the courtroom. Yet they keep just trying to push forward these bogus claims.

Claire McCaskill: And that’s why judge confirmations are so important. We got to pay attention who goes on the bench because our last bastion in this country, if God forbid Trump were elected, would be the court. So let’s pause here.

When we’re back, Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii joins us to talk some turkey on the Senate and what to do about our nation’s housing crisis. Back with him in a moment.

(Break)

Claire McCaskill: Welcome back. My co-host and MSNBC colleague, Elise Jordan, is still with me.

Elise, as we’ve been talking about in these final weeks, Harris is honing in on her message to a few key groups of voters. One of those groups are first time homebuyers, many of whom are struggling to find a house they can afford. A shortage of housing is creating an untenable situation for those who want to create generational wealth.

In fact, realize the American dream, which includes owning your own home. It’s important that these folks get a chance to participate in what is a very American tradition, and that is buying your own house.

Elise Jordan: And, you know, I’m so glad that this is something that Kamala Harris is honing in on, because it is a real problem that you hear from young voters in places like Wisconsin. When I was in Eau Claire and talking to these young women under 30 and just how difficult it is.

So to help us break down the economic gridlock about the lack of housing, we have Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii joining us now. He chairs the Indian Affairs Committee and is on Appropriations, Commerce, Science and Transportation, Foreign Relations and the Committee on Ethics.

Claire McCaskill: Hey, welcome, Brian. We are so tickled to have you.

Listen, I got to tell you guys about Brian. He is, I think, coming into his own in the Senate at this point. I think for too long in the Senate, he was overlooked by national media, frankly, because he’s a nice guy and he doesn’t have sharp elbows. He doesn’t hog the microphone. He doesn’t look for viral moments, but he’s really good at his job.

He has been the tip of the spear trying to push the Senate many times in ways people don’t see. But trust me, he’s there doing it on climate. He’s doing it on housing. He’s doing it on equality issues. He’s doing it on a whole host of issues that matter to most Americans. So I had to get that plug in for my friend Brian, who is Brian Schatz, not Brian Schatz.

Senator Brian Schatz: And who likes to see you, Claire. Thank you for the kind words.

Claire McCaskill: You’re welcome.

So you’re a big proponent of figuring out how to solve our current housing crisis, which in part is there just because there’s not enough inventory, obviously exacerbated by high interest rates, obviously exacerbated by a problem with both supply and demand. So let’s talk about Kamala Harris’s plan to tackle housing affordability.

First of all, tell me what you think of it. Will it work? And how is she going to do this? How is she going to get this across the finish line?

Senator Brian Schatz: It’s a great plan and it’s basically supply side and demand side. And the reason that that’s important is we really haven’t had major politicians talk about the supply side. And let me say that even more simply, we don’t have enough houses. We make it too hard to build houses. This is, I think, the only major thing that we all say we want more of and then the government makes it super hard to create.

If big pharma came to us and constrain the supply on purpose of the thing that we said we wanted, we would demand that they manufacture more of it. Housing developers are sitting there saying, hey, we’d be willing to do as much as the market will demand if you would simply permit us to do so. And it is mostly state and county, but also sometimes federal regulations that get in the way.

So two things. On policy, I think it’s a real breakthrough to have the leader of our party understand that this isn’t just about subsidizing. I’m the Chair of the Transportation and HUD Appropriations Committee, which means I provide resources for public housing infrastructure. And of course, as you know, Claire, the LIHTC program, the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, is pretty effective. But there’s not enough subsidy in the world to deal with the problem that is we’re not permitting people to build on their own land.

And the beauty of this political moment is that there is room on the left and the right. Left-wing people that you’re talking about in Wisconsin, across the country, rural, tribal, urban, understand there’s just not enough housing. And right-wing people, reasonable right-wing people, are saying, hey, it’s my property. Why don’t I get to do with it whatever I want? And so this is an opportunity for us to actually make some good policy progress and not have this be a super polarized issue.

So I’m super glad that Kamala is leading on this. And, you know, the YIMBY movement has never had so much momentum.

Claire McCaskill: How do you get over the problem of just the local boards, though? What policy, what federal policy could deal with dealing with your local zoning commission?

Senator Brian Schatz: So it’s two things. That’s really the question, right? I think there’s two things we have to do. First, we do have to change the politics. The coalition of people who consider themselves progressives, people who consider themselves pro-immigrant, pro-climate action, pro-choice, pro-LGBTQ are the ones that are saying, “Hey, stop development on Block F.” As if that is some sort of progressive value. It’s just not.

And there’s a new generation of progressives. And I’m not that new generation, but I am supportive of them that are saying, “Hey, who in the world decided that preventing a construction worker from living in the house that they build, preventing a nurse from living in the community in which they provide nursing services, how is that a progressive value?”

So one thing is we just have to aggressively tell our coalition that there’s nothing left wing about preventing people from being able to live and thrive in their own communities. And then the second part of this is there are incentives and other things that we can provide to precipitate change.

So we have a YIMBY grant program through HUD, $100 million that incentivizes different counties and states that are in the process of zoning deregulation and making it easier to build. And I tell you what, I come from Hawaii and I come from the environmental movement, which was primarily and appropriately about stopping bad projects.

And as I have watched what’s happened in Hawaii, but also when I joined the banking committee, I started to learn that when Jim Crow was outlawed by the United States Supreme Court and housing segregation by race was explicitly ruled unconstitutional, what happened was a bunch of racists in partnership with what is now the National Association of Realtors, I should point out they’re good on housing now, sat down and tried to figure out how to do restrictive covenants, minimum lot sizes, and all the other zoning and planning regulations that a bunch of progressives think are somehow some progressive value. Really what they are is an extension of Jim Crow separating those people from us and protecting the quote, “unique character” of our neighborhood.

The reason they used that language is it was a substitute for race at the time. And we have to understand that the history of Jim Crow is a dark history and it sort of curdled into some sort of left wing progressivism stopping housing. And we’ve got to be straight about it and we’ve got to be direct about it. And I think there is a huge appetite among progressives to say “whatever we’re doing on housing, it ain’t working.”

Claire McCaskill: Okay, so I think we ought to make sure everybody knows what YIMBY is. Brian and I have something in common. Both of our spouses have worked in housing development. And my husband dealt with NIMBY for decades as he tried to build low income housing, particularly in rural areas. And NIMBY is “Not in my backyard.” YIMBY is “Yes in my backyard.”

Talk a little bit about the amount of money she’s talking about giving to first time homebuyers. Can we afford it? Can it get through the Senate? If we hold the Senate, is it part of reconciliation, subject to negotiation with other things Republicans want? How do you see the future of her proposal to give basically an ability of folks to get a hold of cash for a down payment?

Senator Brian Schatz: Well, I think it gets at a real problem, right? You know, in the state of Hawaii, we have more than 20,000 individuals on the waiting list for the Department of Hawaiian Homelands. And when their name comes up, a lot of times the impediment is being able to round up those dollars for a down payment. So I think this can be very helpful.

My own view, and of course it’s subject to negotiation, but my own view is that this really only works if you also do something on the supply side. Because what we’ve seen, for instance, with Gavin Newsom’s, I think, very smart proposals in California is you can set aside two, three, five, $12 billion for affordable housing. But the throughput capacity, the problem is going to be local zoning boards, California Environmental Quality Act, and all the rest of it.

And so, yes, money is helpful on the demand side. Yes, money is helpful for individual homebuyers. But if there are still only a limited number of new homes built, then you’re basically, you know, you’re playing musical chairs and certain people get a house and certain people don’t.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, and you’re driving up the price of housing because your demand goes up and your supply doesn’t go up. And all of a sudden the houses just got more expensive.

Senator Brian Schatz: Yeah, we have to be very careful, Claire, because we’re sounding a little center right here, but I think you’re right.

Claire McCaskill: Well, you know me, when in doubt, hug the center.

I think now let’s talk about the balance of power a little bit in the Senate, because will it be any different when the era of McConnell is over? You know, you’re looking at some tough Senate races for your colleagues, frankly, and the odds aren’t looking especially great that Democrats are going to be the majority.

What do you think about Thune or Cornyn, or do you not even want to get into going there at this stage?

Senator Brian Schatz: I have a preference, but I don’t want to express it because I think it would backfire on that person. But I’ll just tell you this, for the last two cycles, it has been, I think, appropriately predicted that we were going to lose the Senate. And for the last two cycles, we unexpectedly kept the Senate.

And so, you know, I’m not saying we’re favored. What I am saying is that we are favored in probably 48 to 49 races, and then we’ve got a reasonable shot in three or four races.

And so my own view is that there’s a fair amount of campaigning left to do, and that for the most part, our candidates have a better case to make, they have more money to make it, and better organization to deliver the message. So to the extent that, you know, these things are not put away, none of them, I still like our position.

So I think we can win in Texas. I really do. I think we can win in Florida. I really do. I still think John Tester is a unicorn and can win. And I think Sherrod Brown remains ahead.

So I don’t want to concede a Senate loss. I will say that the loss of Mitch McConnell could be very, very shaky for Senate Republicans. Whatever his fault, he held the caucus together for the most part. And it’s not obvious to me that there’s any successor who’s going to be in a position to do that.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, I don’t want to sing praises to Mitch McConnell either. But I will say this, when it came to things like keeping the government open and living up to our commitments abroad in terms of countering Putin, he has been a stalwart, even when, frankly, a lot of folks were abandoning that because of Donald Trump. I mean, he kind of stood up to Trump on some important issues.

Overall, did he perpetuate to Trump? Yeah. And does that suck? Yeah, it really sucks that he swallowed all of the racial, horrible things Trump said about his wife and, you know, still supports him. And it just makes me sick. But I do think keeping a caucus together is harder than people realize, because, you know, guess what? There’s some egos in the Senate. I know that’s a shocker to everyone, but there are some significant egos in the Senate.

You know, when I was there, there were really only just a handful of assholes. That caucus seems to have grown somewhat since I left.

Senator Brian Schatz: The asshole caucus?

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. The people who don’t want to negotiate. They want to stand on the edge and scream and shout grievance, and they don’t want to come together and solve any problems. And those are assholes in the Senate. If you’re not willing to compromise, you’re going to be dysfunctional. And that caucus has grown over there.

So do you believe Thune and Cornyn are going to go along with the push to lessen the power of the leader?

Senator Brian Schatz: No, I think this is this story was ever thus, and it’s for both parties. Every person running for leader of their party says, “Yes, I’m going to empower you. I’m going to do whatever I can. We’re going to democratize the thing.” And then the kind of like, you know, exigencies of the moment require that, “oh, you know what? We’re not going to give you 72 hours to review the bill. Oh, turns out we’re not going to give you the amendments that you asked for. Not an open amendment process.”

All of those promises, I think, are written in the wind. They will be demanded. People will have to at least give lip service to it. But I do not anticipate that anything will change.

But I actually do not think that’s the main, you know, I’m maybe in the minority, even in my own caucus about that. I don’t think that’s the main thing in the Senate. I think there are lots of legislative bodies across the world and across the country that function well without an open amendment process. And some of them function well with an open amendment process. And this idea that you automatically get better outcomes if you sort of small d democratize the process. Well, it kind of depends who you’re democratizing to. Right?

If you’re democratizing. Well, I won’t name names because I still work with these people, but if you’re democratizing to people who are insane, then maybe not so good. Right? If you’re democratizing to a great democratic caucus that’s got a lot of talent. Wonderful.

But I think people sometimes sort of eat the menu here and take things a little too literally. I think the main challenge in front of us is to beat Donald Trump, but also to beat Trumpism. And I still think there’s a critical mass to do that in the United States Senate. But it’s like a hair’s breadth margin.

Elise Jordan: Senator, you mentioned that you think Colin Allred could beat Ted Cruz. Tell us why you’re optimistic.

Senator Brian Schatz: Polling. I mean, you know, the polling is actually close. I think the case against him is essentially that, oh, you know, Texas is structurally Republican. And so he might be able to get close, but he won’t get over the top. I’m not sure that’s actually a statistical analysis so much as it is like people not wanting to sound goofy. Right? Because there’s a kind of and, Claire, you know, this we’ve been snakebit so many times, especially in Florida, that we don’t want to sound goofy getting all excited about the latest Florida thing. And then we’re going to lose by four or seven. And so there’s just a little bit of hedging there.

But the damn thing is close. And Colin Allred has more money. He performed very well at the debate and he’s closing very strong. Whether or not, you know, he gets over the top, I don’t know. But my own judgment is that that race is within reach for sure.

Claire McCaskill: If there was ever a state where women who typically a voted Republican changed their mind and vote for a Democrat this time because of abortion restrictions, I mean, Texas would be in the top two or three places that that would happen. Because Texas has been so outside the box in terms of some of the crazy stuff they’ve done to try to limit women and their ability to make their own decisions without government interfering with them.

And I just want to say, as you know, Brian Tester’s my bestie and Sherrod, too. You know, we came in together and I’m so proud of both of them. I’m so proud of the campaigns they’ve run. But let’s not fool our listeners into thinking that they are going to way outspend their opponents because what has happened and this has happened in the last three cycles, the hard money that’s raised by a candidate is dwarfed by the big money that is coming in from dark sources.

And back when I was first running, those big sources would maybe write a $1-million check to Mitch McConnell’s PAC or to some other shadowy third party PAC. Now we’ve got these billionaires stroking $20-million checks, $40-million checks to try to take out Bob Casey and take out John Tester and take out Sherrod Brown, because those are the people that are not looking after billionaires. Those are the people that are doing the people’s work.

And as I say, he may not have all of his fingers, but I would never underestimate John Tester, not in a million trillion years. So —

Senator Brian Schatz: Amen.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, let’s briefly touch on FEMA. I know that you have been at the forefront because of the Maui fires and the devastation that occurred in your home state. Are you feeling okay about where FEMA is right now in terms of funding? And do you think there will be enough money to do what’s going to be necessary in light of this devastating hurricane season?

Senator Brian Schatz: FEMA has enough money to operate for the next, I would say, month or two, even if there are a couple of additional terrible events and you have to sort of actuarially speaking, assume that there will be.

The challenge is what happens after that. And also, FEMA is not the only aspect of disaster response and recovery. Community Development Block Grants, disaster recovery are what allow people to rebuild. And so Maui is still waiting for around $1.5 billion, so we can start rebuilding houses. And Mississippi is still waiting and Vermont is still waiting. And 20 states are waiting for that portion of the money.

There’s also a bunch of ag disasters in Georgia and elsewhere. And so, you know, FEMA can make it through to mid-November. That’s not the issue. The issue is that we really have to pass a really big disaster supplemental. And I think what we’re understanding is, yes, there were always disasters. Yes, they are always expensive and devastating. But they are just certainly more frequent and more severe in this era of climate change.

And so we just need to understand that climate inaction is way more expensive than climate action.

Claire McCaskill: Well, I think that’s a perfect place to leave it with somebody who is known to mumble in his sleep, “Climate, climate, climate. We’ve got to do more on climate.” He is one of the really effective soldiers on behalf of saving this planet from all of the things that people are seeing that we’ve never seen before.

So thanks for all that, Brian. We are really tickled that you joined us this morning.

People ask me all the time if I’m happy. I say, “Well, I’m so happy I feel guilty.” And they ask me, “Well, don’t you miss it?” And I have to say this, honestly, I do not miss Washington. I do not miss the Senate, but I sure miss my friends. And I’m happy to call you one of those.

Senator Brian Schatz: Oh, you’re very kind. Thank you, Claire. Thank you, Elise. And appreciate your podcast.

Claire McCaskill: Thanks.

Okay, after the break, Elise and I are going to get to the heart of who you can trust in the era of foreign interference, deep fakes and Trump.

Back with that in a moment.

(Break)

Claire McCaskill: Welcome back. You know, trusting your gut is really important in politics, and it’s important in all aspects of our life. I trust my gut a lot. We trust our train schedules. We trust our clocks. But what happens if you trust that your leader won’t do what they’re promising to do? Or you don’t know whether to trust that what you see and hear is actually a candidate or generated by AI?

It’s tough. And my co-host and MSNBC colleague, Elise Jordan, and I want to look at a few converging stories to talk about trust in these final election weeks.

Elise Jordan: So first, we’re going to look at how Trump voters hear the claims that Donald Trump makes, some of his most outrageous, unconstitutional ideas, and yet they don’t believe that he actually will follow through.

He has this amazing superpower with his supporters where they are willing to be entertained by what he says without actually believing the ugly promises. So how does this work? How does this process work with his voters?

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, it’s interesting. It’s selective hearing. And one of the really more peculiar aspects of this is a lot of the people voting for him are doing because they don’t believe him. Isn’t that weird?

It’s very strange. And you know, what I would say to these voters, Elise, is have a conversation with Bill Barr, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, White House Counsel Don McGahn, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Milley, General Mattis, General Kelly. And what all of those people will tell you is that he tried to do all this in his first term. All of it. He wanted the military to go after protesters. He wanted DOJ to put John Kerry and Hillary Clinton in jail.

Elise Jordan: Exactly. Well, what I find funny about John Kerry and the Department of Justice wouldn’t prosecute John Kerry for violations of the Logan Act, which is what Trump wanted for accusing John Kerry of still talking to Iranian officials about the nuclear deal. Donald Trump has probably talked to Vladimir Putin, according to pretty credible reporting from Bob Woodward this week. So he would be prosecuted for exactly what he’s accusing others of.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. And what was January 6th? And forget about whether or not he was there. Forget about what he said in his speech ahead of time. Knowing he sat there for at least two hours watching police officers be attacked and liked it. That’s real. That’s not made up. Everybody’s seen the videos of the attacks. Everybody knows he said nothing for hours, even though we all know he was glued to his television set.

So there is evidence that he will do some of this shit because he’s not going to have Bill Barr or Don McGahn. He’s going to have like Mike Flynn and Peter Navarro and Stephen Miller and all of the suck ups that tell him exactly what he wants to hear and will do whatever he tells them to do.

Elise Jordan: Well, that’s what I worry about. You look at how much more effective his campaign has been this go around and how he’s actually run quite a good campaign. I’m worried that he would have a competent administration this time and actually be able to do some of the acts that he has been previewing and previewing often and loudly.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah. And I don’t know that he’ll trust people that would put guardrails on him. I think he’s going to try to avoid people that would do guardrails like his last administration.

All the people that aren’t supporting him, which is the majority of his cabinet, push back on him with some regularity. And I just don’t know that he’s going to have those folks around.

So what about the other bucket?

Elise Jordan: Well, in the other bucket of trust, “The Washington Post” has an article on how to spot AI fakes, which is something that I need help with and something I really don’t even think about. And you just don’t know when you might be encountering one.

So you can complete a quick test on what’s real or what’s actually AI. And we’re going to link to it in our show notes and you can try it for yourself. And so all these models are just getting so much more realistic. And come the next election cycle, these tales may not even be there. And we’ve got to look for the signs that we have now.

And here are some of the ways that you can tell an AI fake. You can look at the stutters. You can look at the emphasis in real speech, how people really emphasize words versus, you know, AI really can’t do that emphasis. And then just breathing and music in the background.

Claire McCaskill: Yeah, they put music in the background to hide some of the anomalies that are present in AI. And just remember, if it seems really perfect, it’s probably AI. And by the way, it’s clear to me in looking at some of the slides that are being used at Trump rallies, they’ve created a bunch of AI slides to show people of people being attacked by scary people with, you know, tattoos and big knives and, you know, children. And they’re creating AI images to get their crowds juiced up about how horrible and evil everybody who doesn’t look exactly like them truly is. So AI is being used and I guarantee you it’s being used in ads right now on social media. So when you see something that you go, I don’t really think Kamala Harris said that, or I don’t think Donald Trump did that, you’re probably right. And just don’t trust your eyes until you look farther. Take that test we have on the notes. It’s really interesting. Oh, by the way, also AI powered bot army on X has been spreading pro-Trump and pro-GOP propaganda. Absolutely. And that was just NBC reported that just yesterday. A report out of Clemson University, a research report, showed that and by the way, X wouldn’t comment on it, but they did take them down when Clemson pointed out that these were all AI bots that were generating this content. So those trolls that you see on your posts, it may just be a computer. So, you know, who does believe what he’s saying? And that’s government employees. What do you think, Elise? They should. They’re promising to get rid of, you know, half their positions. Your Project 2025 actually did a great service to Democrats because in such stark language and grotesque vision, it put out what they were planning to do. And it’s been a really effective weapon at educating voters who might not care about the government bureaucracy and civil servants and their positions. But, you know, we need government to run and function and you don’t appreciate what you lose until it’s gone. And if you think government right now is ineffective, just wait until most of the civil service is obliterated. Listen, I spent a lot of time in the Senate chasing payrolls without a purpose and government waste and places we are spending money we shouldn’t. And I’m the first to admit government’s not perfect. But I will tell you this, the vast majority of the people I encountered in government service during my time in the government worked hard and they were smart and they cared. They didn’t go into government for big money. They didn’t go into government to be a star. They enjoy serving. They enjoy the work. And many of them are experts. They know a lot about what they’re doing and government’s complicated. So the idea that he’s going to blow up civil service and put a bunch of his lackey yackies in there that are going to show fealty to him. No wonder government employees are freaked out and trying to change jobs, get out of EPA and education into other areas, because they’re all worried that they’re just going to be summarily fired if Donald Trump becomes president. And we lose a lot of technical expertise when we lose good civil servants. So shout out to all the government employees. There’s a bunch of people out here who may not know you, but you deserve respect. So thank you for what you do and how hard you work. And thank you for joining us for today’s installment of How to Win 2024. And a huge thanks to my co-host today, MSNBC political analyst, what I call one of my favorite normal Republicans. Oh, thank you. She is on Earth One, guys. She’s not on Earth Two. Although normal these days on the scale of what it’s become, I don’t even know. I think that still leaves you plenty of room to be kind of crazy. Fair, but she’s not crazy. She’s smart and helpful and a great colleague. Former aide to George W. Bush White House and State Department’s Elise Jordan. Thank you, Elise. Thanks so much for having me, Claire. Remember to subscribe to MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts for ad-free listening and bonus content like a premium only episode of Why Is This Happening with Simone Sanders Townsend that will be available this Friday and our re-release of Kamala Next In Line, which you can find in this feed right now. This show is produced by Vicki Varelina. Jamirez Perez is our associate producer. Katie Lau is our audio engineer. Our head of audio production is Bryson Barnes. Aisha Turner is the executive producer for MSNBC Audio. And Rebecca Cutler is the senior vice president for content strategy at MSNBC. Search for How to Win 2024 wherever you get your podcasts and follow the series.