President-elect Donald Trump’s Truth Social posts about tariffs are the talk of the town this Thanksgiving, sparking a new wave of condemnation, confusion and international concern. “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” Trump posted on the Monday evening of a holiday week.
You can say this for the man — he is consistent.
Indeed, Trump consistently talks a big game about all his plans and schemes. But just because he says something on social media doesn’t mean he will follow through. We know this. Or we should know this. Now let’s act like it.
On tariffs, Trump’s actions will ultimately depend on the opinions of a few key business allies and how the markets respond.
On tariffs, Trump’s actions will ultimately depend on the opinions of a few key business allies and how the markets respond. And the markets, in this case, did react. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Mexican peso, with the Canadian dollar weakening slightly before stabilizing. But analysts have learned a few things since Trump was in office the first time. As this roundup of international financial analysts shows, many wary (and weary) experts are taking these pronouncements with a grain of salt.
“This is how he gets stuff done, isn’t it? He throws stuff around, mentions various numbers, markets react and maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t,” noted Robert Carnell, an economist based in Singapore.
Carnell’s words are an important reminder: We have all seen this show before. In 2019, Trump threatened Mexico with a 5% tariff, “until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP.” A week later a deal was reached with Mexico to take increased steps to reduce illegal immigration along the U.S. border.
That 2019 thread (posted on what was then called Twitter) was likely a trial balloon and negotiation tactic. And Trump would love nothing more than for Mexico to respond to his 2024 tariff post with a new, more stringent border policing policy.
Such an outcome would be a win-win for Trump, who has focused on tariffs and mass deportations as his early priorities. But just like starting a trade war, deporting millions of people could prove both challenging and politically damaging.
Trump has also claimed that he will pay for new tax cuts with tariffs, an idea that many Republicans are already publicly pushing back against. Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Kadia Goba recently quoted half a dozen members of Congress “leery of trying to pay for tax cuts with Trump’s tariffs.” Meanwhile, the costs of mass deportations would likely be astronomical. And Trump’s proclamation that, if necessary, he will order the military to assist with deportations has been met with similar skepticism. On CBS News’ “Face the Nation” last Sunday, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said, “I will not support and will not vote to use the military in our cities.” Rand went on to note such a mobilization would be “a terrible image.”
Trump loves tough talk, but he wants respect and admiration more than anything else.
Ironically, it might be that last part that concerns Trump the most. Trump loves tough talk, but he wants respect and admiration more than anything else. Crashing markets, spiking inflation, ugly images and bad PR — that’s not his goal.
This is all important context for the next weekend or late-night Truth Social tirade. They aren’t going to stop once he moves back into the West Wing.
In 2016, Trump promised over and over and over to build a wall with Mexico — and make Mexico pay for it. In reality, only a fraction of that wall was new construction, and Mexico never paid for it.
Trump’s policies have a lot of people concerned, for good reason. Undocumented workers, Dreamers and business owners are all scrambling to protect themselves from bad and worst-case scenarios. But everyone else needs to remember that Trump hasn’t actually done anything yet. Let’s be prepared but not afraid.