Donald Trump is finding fewer and fewer supplicants for his series of extortion attempts, with Harvard University becoming the latest institution to reject the administration’s demands. As with most things Harvard-related, the school’s primacy is overstated: Michigan State University, New York public schools and other education institutions have already pushed back against White House overreach. The schools are not alone: From law firms to corner offices, some of America’s most prestigious institutions are finding their spines — or at least their voices — in the face of Trump’s power grabs.
If anything, though, these institutions are trailing popular sentiment. Many observers treated Trump’s victory in November as a profound change in American politics. At the most extreme, the president and his allies tried to claim that his victory — the third-narrowest since World War II — represented a sweeping “mandate.” Even some of his critics argued his second term brought with it a “vibe shift.”
But the “vibe shift” was always a mirage. And even before Trump’s 100th day in office, the mirage is already disappearing.
Implicit in this narrative was the idea that Trump and his agenda had achieved enduring popular support. Oligarchs like Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and media owners like The Los Angeles Times’ Patrick Soon-Shiong used this reasoning to shift their platforms right.
Implicit in this narrative was the idea that Trump and his agenda had achieved enduring popular support.
In fact, the president’s second-term approval ratings look eerily similar to his first: a poor start that only gets worse. Trump’s initial favorability ratings in January were the second-worst of any presidency, just slightly better than his previous administration. By mid-March, his net approval was again negative; by early April, his average disapproval was already more than 50%.
The explanation for this must start with the economy, which remains voters’ top concern. (In a recent Gallup survey, for example, nearly 90% of Americans were concerned about the economy.) After promising to bring prices down “on day one,” the president has done little but lie about egg prices — which, yes, are still rising. Instead, Trump has blundered ahead with the most distinctive part of his economic platform: sweeping tariffs. But the more voters have seen, the less they’ve liked. Compiling more than a dozen polls taken after this month’s “Liberation Day,” former 538 editor G. Elliot Morris calculated that Trump’s approval rating dropped 6 percentage points compared to the same pollsters’ previous surveys.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week is typical of this group: 75% say the tariffs will raise prices in the short term, 65% say they’ll make the economy worse and 54% say Trump is already more responsible for the state of the economy than Joe Biden, just two months after the latter left office. Even the intended beneficiaries of tariffs — according to Trump, at least — are skeptical: In a Washington Post survey of manufacturing workers, 57% said his tariffs would “hurt your job and career,” while just 22% said the duties would help.
While voters soured quickly on Trump’s economic policies, his handling of immigration has seemed a bright spot for many. But as with the broader “vibe shift” narrative, the signs of a mirage have long been present. Even before the election, most voters opposed the specifics of Trump’s immigration policies, such as deporting immigrants with no criminal records or those who are parents of U.S. citizens. As cases such as Kilmar Abrego Garcia and Mahmoud Khalil highlight MAGA’s cruel immigration policies, Trump’s strength on the issue has ebbed. In a new Quinnipiac poll, for instance, Trump’s net approval on immigration issues is minus 5%; on deportations specifically, it’s minus 10%.
When politicians and pundits try to conjure a more pro-MAGA vibe shift, they not only overstate the popularity of Trump’s agenda, but they also understate the scale and the fury of his opposition. The Democrats who were quickest to recognize political reality are being rewarded. Sen. Cory Booker seized the country’s attention with his record-breaking speech, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have drawn record crowds on their cross-country tour, even in red states.
Little comes more naturally to Trump than bluffing about his power.
On the other side of the aisle, as I wrote last week, the tariff fiasco has lessened the taboo for GOP lawmakers criticizing Trump. And after weeks of Trump corralling dissident Republicans in Congress with his word alone, House Speaker Mike Johnson had to put his job on the line to avoid an embarrassing defeat on an all-important budget vote.
That the Trump agenda was never as popular as recent conventional wisdom would claim does not lessen the damage done. Nor will it stop the president and his billionaire allies from plowing on with their destruction of government and civil society. Little comes more naturally to Trump than bluffing about his power.
But the truth of Trump’s unpopularity is instructive in how the rest of us respond to his destruction. Those that already caved to the administration’s demands, or who are in the midst of caving, look more foolish by the day. Those who cover his agenda — including, yes, his immigration policies — as if it is popular do a disservice to their readers. And those who encourage his opponents to hold off protesting, until Trump sinks himself, ignore that that day has already come.