For tariffs and undermining America’s alliances, Trump and right-wing media’s pitch to their followers is nationalistic. With promises to reverse globalization and restore a mythologized past, they sell a vision of booming domestic manufacturing and repatriated jobs prompting a reflowering of masculinity, calling it “America First.” But that’s just a marketing slogan. The impact of Trump’s hostility to the world isn’t deglobalization; it’s de-Americanization.
The impact of Trump’s hostility to the world isn’t deglobalization; it’s de-Americanization.
International integration will continue, with or without the U.S. The primary causes of globalization are technological (transportation, information) and geopolitical (the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving no major power opposed), not “globalist” rather than “nationalist” choices by American presidents. Even if Trump’s protectionist policies lead to more American companies’ building factories in the U.S. — already a big if, as he creates economic uncertainty and cuts them off from foreign customers — it won’t stop other countries from seeking prosperity in free trade and security in alliances. Trump might not believe in mutually beneficial cooperation, but others recognize the advantages. The world will move on without us, spurred by Trump’s hostility to deepen friendly relationships and give others a second look. Indeed, it’s already happening.
An illustrative example is Vietnam, with a developing economy that’s similar in size to Norway and Denmark but growing faster. In the 21st century, Vietnam has been one of the most pro-American countries in the world, in part because of concern about China. Nevertheless, the Trump administration slapped Vietnam with a 46% tariff, falsely calling it “reciprocal.” When Vietnam offered to take its already low tariffs with the U.S. to 0%, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro dismissed it with “that means nothing to us,” accusing Vietnam of “non-tariff cheating.” This week, Vietnam signed cooperation agreements with China, including on production and supply chains.
Trump’s tariffs won’t get Vietnam to trade less. It just won’t trade as much with the U.S. Globalization isn’t stopping — its locus is shifting, and in a way that harms U.S. interests.
The president and his defenders claim that a main goal of the trade war is to help the U.S. outcompete China, but pushing Asia-Pacific countries closer to China is a primary result of his time in office.As one of the first acts of his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-country trade deal that took years to negotiate. It included America, Vietnam, Japan, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Chile and other Pacific Rim countries that together constitute about 40% of the global economy and notably excluded China. TPP not only facilitated trade; it functioned as a China containment strategy, tying Western Pacific countries to the big economies across the ocean, putting them in better position to resist the political demands that’d come with China’s growing economic might.
Trump called TPP a “horrible deal” in the 2016 campaign and withdrew from it when he took office in 2017, promising better deals with each of the TPP countries via one-on-one negotiations. He got none.
Trump called TPP a “horrible deal” and withdrew from it, promising better deals with each of the TPP countries via one-on-one negotiations. He got none.
A year after the U.S. left, the 11 other countries moved forward with a trade agreement called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It accepts applications, and in 2024 it welcomed its first new member, the U.K. Current applicants include Taiwan, Costa Rica, Ecuador and ... China.China will likely meet the CPTPP’s economic standards; the bloc’s decision will mostly rest on politics. It could take years, and the outcome is uncertain. But even if CPTPP rejects China’s application, American trade hostility makes individual members likelier to seek the relative stability offered by China, despite the strings attached.
Instead of containing China’s rise, Trump cleared its path. The trade war will hurt China’s economy, but as long as it doesn’t collapse, the Chinese government will start making up for the losses by getting trade deals with other countries and the global influence that comes with it. All it has to do is be calm and predictable.
In addition to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, China has been reaching out to Europe. Though they have concerns about closer cooperation with China, European trade officials met with Chinese counterparts this month in response to U.S. tariffs. Touting her economic discussions with India, Indonesia, South Africa and more, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen explained: “The West as we knew it no longer exists. The world has become a globe also geopolitically, and today our networks of friendship span the globe, as you can see in the debate about tariffs.”With the Trump administration denigrating NATO, trying to help Russia in Ukraine and casting doubt on U.S. commitments to allies’ security, European countries have become wary of relying on American defense contractors and are funding their own. They’re drawing closer together, talking more about a joint-EU military force and pursuing relationships abroad. For example, Poland, one of NATO’s largest spenders on defense (as a percentage of gross domestic product), announced nearly $50 billion worth of contracts with the South Korean company Hanwha Aerospace to build missiles and other equipment in Poland, as well as a joint venture to expand business further into Europe.
Trust between countries is valuable. It takes a while to earn and little to destroy, and it is hard to win back.
In addition to Europe, China reached out to Canada, but Prime Minister Mark Carney says China doesn’t share Canada’s values on trade. Nevertheless, America’s neighbor and longtime ally has responded to U.S. tariffs and not-really-joking talk of annexation by seeking to deepen trade and security partnerships with Europe and possibly play an international leadership role. In a remarkable statement, Carney announced that Canada’s old relationship with the U.S., “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over.” But rather than turn inward, Carney advocated seeking cooperation elsewhere, adding: “If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will.” He liked that line enough to make it a campaign ad.
Trust between countries is valuable. It takes a while to earn and little to destroy, and it is hard to win back. Trump has undermined trust in the U.S., not only as an ally or trading partner, but also as the world’s premier economic power.
This can be seen in the recent increases in U.S. government borrowing costs, as U.S. Treasury bond yields rose while stock markets declined in response to Trump’s tariffs. Usually, that goes the opposite way, as declining stocks and global economic turmoil prompt a “flight to safety,” with investors flooding into U.S. bonds. But they don’t think American government debt is the safest asset anymore. Based on 10-year bond yields, borrowing is currently cheaper for Canada, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, China, Italy and Greece.Instead of a rush into dollar-denominated assets, it looks more like capital flight from the U.S.
The American century is over, and the world is heading for a period of uncertainty without a “rules-based order,” more like pre-World War I than post-World War II. But if the eventual result is China’s rising to become the world’s predominant power, historians will note that it didn’t take global leadership, America threw it away.