Let’s start with a cold truth: LeBron James is (probably) not retiring.
Many will speculate about that possibility, having just watched a 40-year-old superstar end his 22nd NBA season on the losing end of a first-round “gentleman’s sweep” by the lower-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. After one of the most decorated careers in NBA history, James gave us one of his most impressive seasons, putting up numbers at his age — 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists — that most players would be happy to have in their 20s.
I’ll sit down with my family, my wife and my support group and have a conversation with myself on how long I want to continue to play.
When he was asked after Wednesday night’s 103-96 loss how much longer he’d play, James said, “I don’t know. I don’t have an answer to that. Something I’ll sit down with my family, my wife and my support group and kind of just talk through it and see what happens. And just have a conversation with myself on how long I want to continue to play.”
There’s nothing left for James — the 2004 rookie of the year, a four-time league MVP, four-time NBA Finals MVP, three-time All-Star MVP and the league’s all-time leading scorer — to prove in the NBA. But like most aging elite athletes of his era (see: Tom Brady, Alexander Ovechkin and Aaron Rodgers), he’s more likely to see his longevity as reason to come back and chase another ring rather than calling it a career.
That’s why the Lakers should be thinking about when they’ll move on from him instead of waiting for him to choose. The Lakers would probably never trade James, but they could make it clear that his time with the team has an expiration date. They should also be trying to figure out how and if they’ll be able to build a team around Luka Doncic, the 26-year-old superstar who essentially fell in their lap their season.
Many Lakers fans will loudly object to the idea of the Lakers moving on from James, especially given the remarkable numbers the league’s oldest active player put up this season. But those same fans are unlikely to tolerate a long dry spell between championships. Lakers Nation is among a small group of fanbases (Patriots, Steelers, Celtics, Yankees) who’ve raised so many banners that they believe winning championships is their right.
That means Lakers fans don’t have the tolerance for the kind of losing that usually accompanies a rebuild. The dilemma, of course, is that fans also don’t want their aging superstar to walk away, especially when he supplies enough thrilling plays and wins to give them hope that he’ll deliver another ring.
But if history is any guide, chances are low LeBron James will win the Lakers another title. Rare is the superstar athlete who goes out on top, and the Lakers organization and fans should be honest about that. Kobe Bryant won his fifth and final NBA championship in the 2009-2010 season at age 31. He played six more seasons, two of them shortened by injury, and put up big numbers. But he retired without another championship. The only title the Lakers have won since Bryant was during the pandemic-shortened 2019-2020 season, the first year that James and big man Anthony Davis played together. James was 35 then.
Chances are low LeBron James will win the Lakers another title.
To be clear, the Lakers committed themselves to dragging out the LeBron James era for as long as they can. Last offseason, they signed him to a two-year extension worth more than $101.3 million, with just over half of that due to him next season. If he makes it through next season healthy, few would be surprised if they re-signed him. They drafted his son and namesake, nicknamed “Bronny,” who they hope will improve as a player with his dad still on the roster. Most significantly, the Lakers traded Davis to the Dallas Mavericks for Doncic, giving James a young offensive savant they hoped would help James make it out of the Western Conference and into his 11th NBA finals.
That didn’t go anywhere near according to plan. With the Lakers down 3-1 and playing for their season on Wednesday night, Doncic took a hard foul, landed awkwardly and was hobbled by a bad back the rest of the game. He still contributed 28 points, 7 assists and 9 rebounds but for the time he spent on the floor, the Lakers scored five fewer points than the Timberwolves did.
Doncic is 14 years younger than James, but at times Wednesday he looked five years older. That made me wonder, “Where is this headed?” There was no indication that the back injury was serious or would affect Doncic’s play beyond his offseason rehab, but back injuries are tricky. If you buy that Dallas moved Doncic in part because of their concerns that he was poorly conditioned and didn’t maintain his health, it doesn’t take a big leap to be concerned about the lasting impact of an injury.
Hoop nerds have long debated whether Doncic’s immense talent will ever be validated with a championship. He didn’t win a championship in six full seasons in Dallas, and if he never does in L.A., such a failure might even flip negative public opinion about Mavs general manager Nico Harrison trading Doncic for Davis. (Though it’s impossible to forgive his claim that he didn’t know just how beloved Doncic was in Dallas.)
Doncic is 14 years younger than James, but at times Wednesday he looked five years older.
James’ success next year and beyond, if he wants to keep playing, is more tied to Doncic than any other player on the Lakers’ roster. Which brings us back to: What do the Lakers really expect, and how much longer will it be before they start thinking about a true rebuild?
Lakers fans might not realize it, but they may already be in another championship drought as they watch and hope their best player can make it happen one more time. James’ career has been singularly excellent but we all eventually have to learn how to move on, even from him.