There have been 22 midterm elections since 1934, and the president's party has lost, on average, 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
It is, without exaggeration, one of the most stunning electoral outcomes in modern American history.
Last night, Democrats outran 86 years of history.
While we still don’t have the final results, Democratic losses will be nowhere close to the historical averages. If anything, Democrats may pick up seats in the Senate and still have an outside chance of holding on to the House of Representatives. It is, without exaggeration, one of the most stunning electoral outcomes in modern American history, and Democrats have no one to thank but Republicans.
The breadth of Democratic success Tuesday is stunning. John Fetterman narrowly held off Mehmet Oz in the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race. Democratic incumbents, who late polling suggested were vulnerable to defeat, such as Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire and Michael Bennett in Colorado, romped to victory. In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, had more votes than Republican Herschel Walker with 96% of the votes cast, but he hadn't cleared the 50% threshold of votes cast, which means there will likely be a runoff election Dec. 6.
But the bigger and more surprising story is in the House. Democratic incumbents, who should have been the first to lose in a true wave election, staved off their Republican opponents. In Virginia, Democrat Elaine Luria was defeated, but two fellow Democrats in the state, Abigail Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton won re-election. In Michigan, not only did Elissa Slotkin win re-election, but Democrats also flipped another House seat. In Pennsylvania, Democrats won the governor’s race by double digits and made serious inroads in the state Legislature.
But Democratic success didn’t just come in blue states. In North Carolina, Democratic candidate Wiley Nickel won a close U.S. House race against a pro-MAGA Republican. Frank Mrvan kept his U.S. House seat in Indiana’s 1st Congressional District. In Ohio, Democratic Tim Ryan lost his bid for the Senate, but Democrats still flipped a House seat from red to blue. And in what may have been Tuesday's biggest shocker, with 90% of votes tallied, Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., was trailing Democratic challenger Adam Frisch in a district that former President Donald Trump won by 6 points in 2020. The district was redrawn in a way that means Trump would have won by almost 9 points.
To be sure, things weren’t all bad for Republicans. Republicans romped in Florida: winning the governor’s race, a Senate race and picking up several House seats. And in deep blue New York, Kathy Hochul narrowly won re-election, and Democrats look poised to lose multiple House seats.
But Florida and New York were the exceptions, not the rule.
Across the board, Republican candidates badly underperformed — and in a political environment where they should have been heavily favored. President Joe Biden isn't popular and inflation is still a major concern, but neither was decisive Tuesday. Ultimately, two factors seemed to have hampered Republicans: the Supreme Court getting rid of abortion protections and Republicans putting forward lousy candidates.
Across the board, Republican candidates badly underperformed — and in a political environment where they should have been heavily favored.
According to the NBC News exit polls, more than 60% of Americans said they were dissatisfied or angry about the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. There seems little doubt that the GOP’s hopes of a red wave were dealt a crushing blow by the abortion issue and the Republican-appointed justices who threw out 50 years of judicial precedent.
The second major factor was candidate quality. In a host of House races, Republicans threw away winnable races with first-time, pro-MAGA, Trump-endorsed candidates. In Pennsylvania, gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano had no money, ran a lackluster campaign and, not surprisingly, lost by double digits. Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon also lost big. It should hardly be a surprise that down the ballot, in both states, Republicans took a beating. In Michigan, according to The Detroit News, Democrats look poised to control both the state House and Senate, the latter for the first time in 38 years.
In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp easily won another term as governor, but Republican U.S. Senate candidate Herschel Walker was running nearly 6 points worse. In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu romped to re-election with a 15-point victory. In contrast, Democrat Maggie Hassan won re-election to the U.S. Senate by beating Trump-endorsed election denier Don Bolduc by 10 points.
In race after race, Republican primary voters backed weak, pro-Trump candidates, and the party paid the price for it on Election Day.
Democrats have much to be thankful for Wednesday morning and they can certainly pat themselves on the back for a race well won. But without Republican incompetence and extremism, the day after the midterm election would not have been as sweet.
CORRECTION (Nov. 9, 2022, 05:35 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated Elaine Luria’s party affiliation. She is a Democrat, not a Republican.