UPDATE (May 22, 2023, 11:51 a.m. ET): Sen. Tim Scott on Monday announced he's running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., appears to be on the brink of announcing a presidential run. Weeks after he launched a presidential exploratory committee, he's saying he expects to make a “major announcement” in North Charleston on May 22.
Scott’s chances of clinching the Republican presidential nomination, to put it lightly, are not good. He has respectable fundraising skills and is a proficient orator, but he has no buzz, he’s among the least known of the serious presidential contenders, and it doesn’t look like he’s staking out a unique policy lane. At this point the Republican race is effectively a two-man race between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and in that contest Trump is becoming more dominant by the day.
Scott could be a Mike Pence 2.0: attractive to evangelicals without Pence’s baggage from the first Trump presidency.
But Scott may still have something to gain from running. There’s an argument to be made that if he resonates with voters through retail politics and in debates, he could boost his public profile and position himself as a formidable vice presidential candidate. Scott could be a Mike Pence 2.0: attractive to evangelicals without Pence’s baggage from the first Trump presidency — with the added bonus that he can talk about race in a way that no other major Republican can.
There are few signs in Scott’s video announcing his exploratory committee that he offers a substantial break from the MAGA worldview. He attributes America’s economic woes to China, champions cops, pledges to defend the borders and provokes fear about crime. None of that suggests Scott is looking to be an alternative to Trump’s right-wing populism.
But within the scheme of the Trumpian worldview, Scott demonstrates some stand-out qualities that could make him attractive as Trump’s running mate. Scott’s first and most emphatic policy promise in the video is to “defend the Judeo-Christian foundation our nation is built on and protect our religious liberty.” He also frames opposing abortion as a defense of “our most fundamental right.” Scott’s religiosity isn’t just a put-on for this ad — he’s known to casually quote scripture and cite “divine wisdom” when making decisions about fiscal policy. To put it in modern parlance, Scott is “giving Pence” — and one could see why evangelical activists and voters might see in him what they saw in Pence when he was added to Trump’s 2016 ticket.
The other most striking quality in Scott’s ad is his laser focus on how he’s uniquely positioned as a Black man to defend the Republican Party’s turn toward white nationalism. “Joe Biden and the radical left have chosen a culture of grievance over greatness. They’re promoting victimhood instead of personal responsibility,” he declares. “And all too often when they get called out for their failures, they weaponize race to divide us, to hold on to their power.”
“I disrupt their narrative, I threaten their control. They know the truth of my life disproves their lies,” he continues.
Scott is a valuable asset for a party that has since 2016 exchanged dog-whistle racism for train-whistle racism. He’s capable of ably defending the Trump worldview from the perspective of a conservative man of color, and he would serve as a defensive talking point against criticism that Trump is in league with white supremacists.
Lastly, the ad showcases Scott’s wholesome image and optimism. As Trump considers how to balance his potential ticket with a politician who helps compensate for his vulnerabilities, Scott’s dispositional difference could be an appealing foil.
Now we can't be certain that Trump will win the nomination yet, despite how likely it looks. And none of this means that Scott, if he were ever picked by Trump as a vice presidential candidate, would necessarily make a difference in Election Day results. Generally the power of vice presidential picks are vastly overestimated by pundits. But Scott has a lot to gain from being considered for the position — or another high-level Cabinet post. And that might be part of why he’s considering trying his hand, even though he’s savvy enough to know that his own 2024 odds are incredibly slim.