We don’t know exactly how Donald Trump’s historic arraignment in lower Manhattan will go, but here’s the most important thing we should learn Tuesday: what he’s actually charged with. The rest is details.
With this possibly being the most attention the public has ever paid to an arraignment, let’s talk about how some of those details could play out.
Trump arraignment: Follow our live blog beginning at 10 a.m. ET Tuesday for the latest updates and analysis on Trump’s arrest in New York.
The indictment is what's prompting the arraignment. Voted last week against Trump in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, the indictment is the grand jury’s formal accusation that he committed a crime — more specifically, he faces about 30 counts related to document fraud, NBC News has reported. When an indictment is filed before a defendant is arrested, that generates an arrest warrant, so Trump needs to be processed on that warrant. That doesn’t mean he needs to be "perp walked" into the courthouse or handcuffed or held in a cell — and I don’t presume that he will be.
Fingerprinting, however, is something that I would expect — that’s the way to technically ensure that the authorities have the right person, even though there’s really no question about that in the case of global celebrities. Trump isn’t the first and won’t be the last well-known figure charged with crimes in New York, but the trappings of a former president and current presidential candidate can’t fully be ignored; he has the Secret Service with him after all, and they’re coordinating with local officers. A mug shot is also a typical part of the processing, so we’ll see how this defendant is treated in that regard.
The arraignment itself is supposed to start at 2:15 p.m. ET. The judge overseeing the case is Juan Merchan, who presided over the Trump Organization trial last year that resulted in convictions for the former president’s company. Merchan ruled Monday that there won’t be video or audio recording of Trump’s arraignment, but the press can take photographs in the courtroom beforehand. As a former prosecutor for the Manhattan district attorney's office, which is charging Trump in this case, I can tell you that’s not a special restriction for Trump but rather the way that things go in New York.
The proceeding itself could happen quickly. The prosecution will present Trump with a copy of the indictment, and Merchan will ask Trump to enter a plea — which, we can safely assume, will be “not guilty.” From there, the parties might discuss any scheduling matters with the judge and he could set deadlines for defense motions, the prosecution’s response to those motions and the judge’s decision on those motions ahead of a potential trial — which, if it happens, could easily take a year to get to that point.
As for a “gag order” or similar limitation imposed on Trump’s incitement-prone speech while the litigation plays out, I wouldn’t necessarily expect Merchan to impose severe restrictions on the former president at the arraignment. It’s certainly possible, but the judge might instead start things off by making a more general admonition about not making inflammatory comments, and then revisit the issue should Trump abuse any leeway Merchan gives him.
When it comes to that most important part that I mentioned — learning the charges — hopefully we’ll see the indictment as soon as it’s unsealed at the arraignment or shortly thereafter (or beforehand, if there’s a leak). It’s those charges, of course, that will set the course for this historic case as it unfolds.
And we shouldn’t expect Trump to be held on bail. In fact, the sort of nonviolent felony charges we expect him to face aren’t eligible for bail. Instead, Trump should be able to return, as planned, to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, the site of another set of potential crimes in the classified documents probe that the former president could face next.