As of last week, it appeared the Republican majority in the House had reached a point at which they couldn’t complete even the most basic of tasks. With this in mind, yesterday’s developments in the chamber certainly gave the appearance of progress. NBC News reported:
After two embarrassing failed votes last week, House Republicans regrouped Tuesday and voted to open debate on a package of spending bills they hope will unlock votes to keep the government from shutting down at the end of the week. The rule passed 216-212, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., as the sole Republican to vote against it.
The good news, if we’re grading on a curve, is that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy successfully kept his members together long enough to start a debate. Ordinarily, this wouldn’t be seen as a notable victory — such procedural votes are so routine, neither party has failed on them in recent decades — but in 2023, standards for the GOP majority are so low, last night’s developments generated national news coverage.
The bad news is that there’s a deadline for a government shutdown in a few days, and the odds of resolving the problem before Saturday at midnight are getting worse, not better.
Yes, the House managed to begin a conversation about a package of appropriations bills, but even if they were to pass — and they very well might not — it wouldn’t move Congress closer to a solution. As we discussed yesterday, these spending measures have moved far to the right in order to gain Republican support, and they’ll never receive support from the Democratic-led Senate or the Democratic White House.
Speaking of the Senate, there was plenty of movement in the upper chamber, too. NBC News also reported on a short-term spending bill that would keep the government’s lights on until Nov. 17.
The bipartisan bill, negotiated between leaders of the Democratic majority and the Republican minority, includes about $6 billion in aid to Ukraine and $6 billion in emergency disaster relief funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It would also prevent a lapse in Federal Aviation Administration authorities through the end of the year and prevent a pay cut for federal firefighters.
So, perhaps this bipartisan package could serve as a vehicle that would solve the problem, at least until mid-November? In theory, sure. But in practice, it’s not quite that simple.
For one thing, in order to get this bill through the Senate before the deadline, members would have to jump through several procedural hoops that would expedite the process. Such steps would require unanimous consent, which will likely prove difficult: Sen. Rand Paul is opposed to any measure that extends additional support to our Ukrainian allies, and if the Kentucky Republican follows through on his position, he could easily push the process past Saturday night at midnight.
But even if Paul were to shift gears, take a more cooperative approach, and allow the bipartisan Senate bill to clear the chamber relatively quickly, that would send the measure back to the House, where it would inevitably face far-right resistance.
Indeed, McCarthy indicated yesterday that he’s prepared to bring a stop-gap measure — known as a “continuing resolution,” or “CR” — to the floor by the end of the week, but (a) it won’t resemble the Senate’s bipartisan bill; (b) some of his members are opposed to any CR, no matter what’s in it; (c) it probably won’t have the votes it needs to advance; and (d) even if such legislation were to pass, it would fail in the Senate.
Does this mean that a government shutdown is inevitable? Unless key Republicans change their positions quickly, it’s increasingly difficult to see how a shutdown can be avoided.