At a White House event last week, Donald Trump appeared eager to boast about the incredible investments he’s securing thanks to his negotiating prowess. “We have a deal with Japan where they’re going to pay us $550 billion,” the president claimed. “We have a deal with Europe where they’re doing $750 billion plus $400 billion plus $300 billion, and many other countries.”
Around the same time, he declared that South Korea had to pay a 25% tariff, which he unilaterally agreed to lower to 15% after it agreed to make $350 billion in investments.
This week, during the Republican’s latest appearance on CNBC, he peddled a related claim when asked about a reported trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union. To hear Trump tell it, he unilaterally agreed to lower tariff rates on the EU after it agreed to “give” him $600 billion. He added:
And that’s a gift. That’s not like, you know, a loan, by the way. That’s not a loan that, ‘Oh, gee, three years comes up. We have to pay it back.’ There’s nothing to pay back. They gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want. ... [T]here are no details. The details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want. Anything. I can do anything I want.
The clip of the exchange suggested the president was quite animated on the subject.
At face value, Trump appeared to be describing what was effectively a slush fund: Foreign officials will write massive checks, at which point the White House can spend the money however the president sees fit.
I’m mindful of the political parlor game in which observers debate whether individual claims are evidence of Trump’s dishonesty or his ignorance. In a situation like this one, I won’t pretend to know which one applies.
But either way, those who believe the president’s claims on the subject are making a mistake.
Trump seems to have embraced a negotiating model with great enthusiasm. He begins by threatening longtime U.S. allies and trading partners. That’s followed by a shake-down of sorts: The White House lets these allies and trading partners know that their punishments might be less severe if they agree to give the Republican administration a bunch of cash.
At face value, this dynamic might sound more like the actions of a mobster than an American president. But complicating matters are the details that Trump either hasn’t acknowledged or doesn’t understand. The New York Times reported:
The European Union, for instance, does not have the authority to dictate the type of investments that it has promised, and much of Japan’s pledged investments are coming in the form of loans. The investment announcements have also spurred confusion and lacked the usual detail that would accompany such pacts to avoid future disputes.
The $350 billion from South Korea, for example, will apparently take the form of loans and loan guarantees — and when the Trump administration said 90% of the profits would go to the American public, officials in Seoul had no idea what U.S. officials were talking about.
Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who served as the top trade negotiator in the Obama administration, told the Times, “I think there remain a lot of questions, including by the countries who have announced commitments, as to what those commitments actually really mean. Is it enforceable? If they don’t deliver a certain amount of investment over a particular period of time, do tariffs go back into place?”
Trump, who’s never taken much of an interest in governing details, hasn’t even tried to answer such questions.
But there is a related angle to this that might not be immediately obvious: The president might see himself engaging in a series of shakedowns, but what if he’s the one who’s losing?
Daniel Ames, a professor at Columbia Business School reminded the Times that negotiating partners like Japan, South Korea and the EU might also be exploiting Trump’s weaknesses when they make dubious promises that probably won’t be kept.
“Donald Trump is a gifted storyteller, and I think when his counterparts recognize this, they can play to it,” Ames said. “If you’re negotiating with a narcissist, you look for ways to make them feel like they’ve won.”