We don’t yet know when the U.S. Supreme Court will issue its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the Mississippi case in which Republican-appointed justices are likely to overturn Roe v. Wade, but the public won’t have to wait much longer. The high court’s current term will wrap up in a few weeks, which means a decision will come out before the 4th of July.
Thanks to a leaked draft ruling, we know what to expect, but thanks to recent national polling, we also know that there will be a lot of disappointed Americans when the ruling is issued. Consider Gallup’s latest poll, for example.
A Gallup poll conducted mostly after the draft of a Supreme Court decision addressing abortion rights was leaked finds a marked shift in public attitudes over the past year. After a decade in which Americans’ identification as “pro-choice” varied narrowly between 45% and 50%, the percentage has jumped six points to 55% in the latest poll, compared with the prior measure a year ago.
Gallup found Americans identifying as “pro-choice” at a level unseen in nearly three decades. The same results showed that a 52 percent majority said they consider abortion to be morally acceptable — the highest since the pollster began asking the question more than two decades ago.
The same day that data became available, a Wall Street Journal poll found that “more than two-thirds of Americans want to uphold Roe v. Wade, and most favor women having access to legal abortion for any reason.”
The latest NBC News poll pointed in the same direction, showing support for abortion rights reaching a record high, and roughly two-thirds of Americans expressing opposition to the Supreme Court overturning Roe. The NBC News report added, “What’s more, the survey finds abortion climbing up the list of issues that Americans believe are the most important, and that Democratic interest in the upcoming midterms has increased since earlier this year.”
Surveys from early May pointed in a very similar direction.
Circling back to a point we discussed several weeks ago, don’t be surprised if the polling gets even worse for opponents of reproductive rights in the near future. In early 2017, for example, the Affordable Care Act enjoyed modest popularity. The more Republicans put the ACA in jeopardy, however, the more eager the public became to leave the status quo intact.
It’s easy to imagine a similar dynamic unfolding now: Much of the country has grown accustomed to the Roe precedent, assuming that it’d remain in place indefinitely. Once Republican-appointed justices roll back the clock, it’s at least possible, if not likely, that the jolt will affect public attitudes further.
As for the electoral consequences, election forecasters are already predicting massive Republican gains in the fall, with Harry Enten concluding that the GOP, at least for now, is in its best position in more than 80 years.
I don’t know what, if anything, can change this dynamic between now and Election Day, but given the growing support for reproductive rights as they’re put in jeopardy, the Supreme Court’s ruling might very well shake up the political landscape.