President Joe Biden had a succinct message to Arizona voters who, in a few weeks, will be forced to live under a near-total abortion ban enacted in 1864: “Elect me, I’m from the 21st century.”
It sounds simple, but Democrats would do well to drive that point home with voters if they truly hope to capitalize on the public fury after the state Supreme Court recently upheld this draconian law, which only allows for lifesaving exceptions. It’s a boon for Democrats’ voter mobilization efforts that liberal activists got a measure on the ballot that could enshrine the right to abortion in the state’s Constitution. But local Democrats and others watching around the country shouldn't assume that the measure, by itself, will lead to surefire victories in the fall.
The 2022 elections, which came mere months after Roe v. Wade was overturned, offer a warning about what can happen when Democrats do a poor job of messaging to voters about the policies that are at stake up and down the ballot.
In 2022, Democrats won key statewide races for governor, attorney general and secretary of state — but conservative and ultraconservative candidates won other key races. Tom Horne, essentially an architect of the GOP’s anti-diversity crusade in schools, won his race for Arizona Public Schools superintendent. Republican Kimberly Yee won her race for Arizona treasurer, although she branded herself as a more traditional conservative. And in Maricopa County, where most of Arizona lives, Rachel Mitchell, the conservative lawyer who helped Republicans confirm Brett Kavanaugh as Supreme Court justice, won her race to become county attorney.
During her campaign, Mitchell vowed not to punish women who seek abortions in defiance of Arizona’s draconian abortion laws — but she left open the possibility that doctors or others who help women obtain abortions could be prosecuted. She issued a similar statement this week after the court ruling. Notably, her opponent in 2022 lost despite making abortion access a key campaign issue. (Mitchell, by the way, is running for re-election this fall.)
The lesson here? Even in the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court gutting Roe v. Wade, there was some unpredictable ticket-splitting by Arizona voters that helped Democrats in some ways but also soured the party’s otherwise victorious night. And if the party isn't careful this time around, with presidential implications in play, the taste could be even more bitter.
By many accounts, Democrats seem to be taking a more proactive approach to campaigning and organizing in Arizona than four, or even two, years ago. They’ve brought on veteran staffers and they’re prepping a seven-figure ad blitz focused on abortion that will air in the coming weeks. Biden has made visits to the state to tout economic investments, and his campaign is making a point to deploy people such as Vice President Kamala Harris and first lady Jill Biden to make speeches and hold meetings to keep voters engaged.
Heading into November, I’d much rather be in Democrats’ position than Republicans’ where Arizona is concerned. But in light of the results in 2022 — and considering the added variable of Donald Trump on the ballot — they should be operating with a healthy level of paranoia. That means taking no voter for granted and shoring up their messaging to voters about what exactly is at stake if Republicans win.