For what feels like the umpteenth time, experts are highlighting major aspects of Donald Trump’s economic policy that could hurt the economy and spike deficits.
Two new reports from the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model — part of the school Trump has attended and described as “super genius stuff” — found the GOP presidential nominee's economic proposals would increase the deficit nearly five times more than Vice President Kamala Harris' plans.
As CNBC explained:
Former President Donald Trump’s economic proposals would increase federal deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, almost five times more than those of Vice President Kamala Harris, which would add $1.2 trillion, according to a new pair of studies from the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model. The Trump report found that his plan to permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts would add more than $4 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. His proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits comes with a $1.2 trillion price tag, while his pledge to further reduce corporate taxes would add nearly $6 billion.
In contrast, here’s how CNBC summarized the Harris report:
The Harris analysis showed that her plan to expand the child tax credit, the earned income tax credit and other tax credits would raise deficits by $2.1 trillion in the coming 10 years. And her proposal to create a $25,000 subsidy for all qualifying first-time homebuyers would add $140 billion over a decade. But the Harris report found that raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from its current level of 21%, as the vice president has floated, could partially offset the costs of her spending by $1.1 trillion. Along with corporate tax hikes, Harris has said she supports the $5 trillion worth of revenue raisers contained in President Joe Biden’s budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year.
CNBC added the caveat that much of the revenue Harris hopes to generate with her economic plan requires congressional approval. But even with that caveat, the predictions are stark: Trump’s economic proposals would be all but certain to raise deficits dramatically — as he did when he was president — relative to Harris’ plans, which could cost about a fifth as much as his, according to the reports.
Polls suggest most Americans feel the candidate most equipped to handle the economy isn’t always the candidate with the most salient economic plan. Trump’s plan has been panned several times now, despite his apparent polling strength on the issue.
The Penn reports follow a joint letter from 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists in June, who warned that Trump’s economic plan — particularly, his plan to deport immigrants en masse and impose 10% tariffs on all imports — would fuel inflation. And Moody’s Analytics came out with a report in June that reached a similar conclusion.
It's no wonder Trump and his campaign have worked so hard to undermine their movement’s faith in economic experts.