It could have been worse.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with President Donald Trump in Washington this week, with the specter of Trump’s disastrous Oval Office blow-up with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy haunting anyone eager for a de-escalation in tensions. The U.S.–Canadian relationship has been turned upside down since Trump’s inauguration, with the America president’s comments about Canada becoming the “51st State” and references to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau” straining ties between the two neighbors. Combined with the implementation of tariffs, many Canadians are now reconsidering what it means to be partners with the United States.
Canada’s newest leader is brand new and has already been thrust into a difficult but essential diplomatic situation.
Canada’s newest leader is brand new and has already been thrust into a difficult but essential diplomatic situation. Thankfully, Carney seems initially to be effectively treading a very fine line with his U.S. counterpart.
In many ways, Carney owes his newfound power to Trump, winning an election marked by rising anti-American sentiment. On the campaign trail he pledged to both assert Canada’s sovereignty and pursue a new trade and security partnership with the United States if elected.
At the Oval Office meeting on Tuesday, some of Carney’s more intangible qualities were on display. He appealed to Trump’s past as a real estate developer to emphasize that Canada “won’t be for sale, ever.” Trump responded with kind words for the prime minister, calling him “a nice man” and describing the meeting as a “step up.”
Carney’s handling of the meeting was skillful. A former central banker, his business acumen is an asset right now, not least of which because it may impress Trump. But during Trump's first presidency, his initial meeting with Trudeau in 2017 also went relatively well despite their ideological differences.
As Carney looks to move the relationship forward, defense and national security is an obvious area where the two nations can continue to work closely together. Canada’s status as a laggard in defense spending among the allies who make up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is well known, and Ottawa has for years fallen short of the NATO goal of spending 2% of its GDP on defense. In 2024, Canada’s total defense spending was estimated to be just 1.37%. Carney announced during the campaign a plan to meet the 2% goal by 2030, but Trump has called for NATO members to spend 5% of their GDP on defense amid a more volatile international security environment. Carney pledged to meet the 2% goal by spending $13 billion over the next four years on investments ranging from new submarines to ice breakers.
New capabilities are a good goal, but it would benefit Carney to be bold and pledge to meet a higher defense spending goal in a shorter time frame. At the same time, Ottawa should continue to invest in jointly modernizing the North American Aerospace Command and determine a role for Canada in Trump’s "Golden Dome" missile defense proposal.
The two nations should also explore ways to collaborate on Arctic security. Ottawa previously announced the purchase of an over-the-horizon radar system for the region, which will help to reinforce the capabilities of the Canadian Armed Forces. In Washington, Trump has made clear that he sees the Arctic as a vital region that is relevant to U.S. national security interests. Greater collaboration between the two nations can strengthen defense and security in a part of the world where adversaries like China and Russia are looking to stake their own claims.
Increasing defense spending and collaborating on shared security challenges is a clear way in which Ottawa can start to rebuild the relationship with Washington.
Increasing defense spending and collaborating on shared security challenges is a clear way in which Ottawa can start to rebuild the relationship with Washington. Both nations will need a lot more than one fairly pleasant meeting to correct the relationship in a way that is both productive and mutually beneficial.
Tariffs and the bilateral trade relationship are likely to be much more difficult obstacles to overcome. At the meeting, the two leaders pledged that the U.S.–Mexico–Canada agreement would be the starting point for a renegotiated economic deal. However, Trump also stated there was nothing that Carney could say that would get him to reduce tariffs on Canadian goods at this time.
Ultimately, Carney handled himself well during the Oval Office meeting, reinforcing Canada’s sovereignty and laying the groundwork for further talks. But for the relationship to avoid the contentious dynamics that marked the Trudeau-Trump stalemate, Carney should now aim for actions, such as greater investments in defense and security. Doing so can demonstrate a change in the way Canada approaches the world and can earn favor in the White House.
For now, the meeting seemed to have worked, with the U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hokestra declaring that “from my standpoint, from the president’s standpoint, 51st state’s not coming back.” That's good news if true. The American president loves to think of himself as a strong deal maker. Carney must find ways to mirror that strength while seeking out common ground to stand on.