A new NBC News poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers shows that if there’s anywhere that former President Donald Trump’s rivals have a chance at taking him down, it’s in the Hawkeye State.
Consistent with all state and national polling, the new poll shows Trump with a dominant lead over every other Republican candidate. But Trump’s lead in Iowa is less dominant than in national polls, and a number of more establishment-aligned Republicans are faring unusually well there. When respondents were asked to name their first choice for president, 42 percent named Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received 19%; Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, 9%; former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, both 6%; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 5%; and former biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy, 4%. The rest are at 2% or lower.
These numbers, as low as they are now, present some rare opportunities for Trump’s challengers.
These numbers, as low as they are now, present some rare opportunities for Trump’s challengers. First, according to this poll, Trump is getting about 10 percentage points less in support in Iowa than he’s averaging in national surveys. That doesn’t make him vulnerable per se, but it does suggest that it’s prime territory for someone to mount a challenge. Particularly since Iowa is the first nominating contest and can immediately reshape voter expectations for a candidate's longer-term viability. Not only is Trump underperforming in Iowa, but DeSantis, Trump’s only serious competition at this point, is outperforming his national average by some 5 percentage points in this poll. (These numbers aren’t bizarre outliers — they track broadly with a New York Times/Siena College poll of Iowa taken a few weeks ago.)
The second notable characteristic of the poll is that candidates that code as “establishment” types — such as Scott, Haley, Pence and Christie — are mostly doing a few percentage points better than they are in most national polls. Scott, in particular, is almost three times more popular in this Iowa poll than he is averaging in recent national polls. By contrast, Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old outsider with zero political experience, is doing significantly worse in Iowa than in national polls, where he’s averaging third place lately in arguably the most surprising political trajectory of the campaign season so far.
There are a number of possible explanations for this. Precisely because Iowa receives outsize attention from presidential candidates, a strong ground game there can compensate for a weaker national performance. It also seems possible that Iowa’s Republican voters are disproportionately receptive to the party establishment and less attracted to outsiders, since the state has a tradition of being plugged into national politics and is showered with huge amounts of attention by establishment party candidates. Put another way, Republican voters in Iowa might believe more in the party system because the system shows them special attention. Regardless of the explanation, the trend suggests that Iowa is a contest where a candidate who wants to stake out a lane that codes as more moderate or stable relative to Trump may have a fighter’s chance.
Third, nothing in Iowa is yet set in stone. Over half of poll respondents asked about their preferred candidate said their mind wasn’t made up yet. For candidates with charisma or an unconventional playbook, that’s a particularly hopeful data point. And as Trump alienates evangelical leaders in the state, there may be an opportunity for a rival GOP candidate to siphon off one of the most valuable voting blocs in the state’s Republican electorate.
That all being said, the window of opportunity for a challenger is small. Trump still holds a double-digit lead over his closest competitor in the state and commands a disproportionately loyal share of likely caucus voters. “Two-thirds of caucusgoers who support Trump as their first-choice candidate say their minds are made up, versus just one-third who say the same of their support for DeSantis,” NBC News reports. That means that Trump’s supporters are less likely to float away than other candidates’ supporters are. The poll also found that news of Trump’s fourth indictment was followed by an increase in support for the former president, suggesting at the very least that Trump’s biggest liability in terms of “electability” — his legal troubles — are not likely to lead to his downfall in the state.
And Republican challengers aren’t just facing off against Trump, but each other. The sheer size of the presidential field, with at least 11 declared candidates, may prevent voters looking for an alternative to Trump from converging on one candidate. If the field doesn’t narrow before the state holds its caucuses, Trump will be particularly well-positioned to sweep up voters who prefer alternatives but aren’t sharply opposed to him.
If there’s anywhere in the presidential race that Trump could lose hold of the narrative that he is the presumptive nominee, it’s in Iowa. But it’s going to take a lot of work, skill and luck for any candidate to capitalize on that opportunity.
