One of Joe Biden’s promises in his 2020 presidential campaign was that he would restore strong U.S. leadership abroad and rein in the chaos that Donald Trump had unleashed in the international order.
But if you take a look at the Middle East right now, Biden hasn’t done a very good job of fulfilling that pledge.
Under Biden’s watch, the Middle East is growing less stable. In the past few weeks, Israel has begun a new war with its invasion of Lebanon, against the public wishes of the Biden administration. Iran has fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, the second time it has ever launched such a direct assault on Israel from its own land. Israel has since promised it will retaliate against Iran — and that if the tit-for-tat continues for an additional round, strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites are on the table. Meanwhile Israel's war in Gaza in response to Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks continues to rage with no end in sight. As a result of the instability, the price of oil is rising, and attacks on oil production in the region could cause it to surge more.
Just the rumblings of an imminent crisis or potentially surging gas prices could hurt the electoral appeal of Democrats.
In other words, the Middle East is slowly inching toward breaking out into a full-scale regional war that could shake up the global economy, create a gigantic crisis in U.S. foreign policy and result in the deaths of countless civilians.
This is not good news for the Democrats as Election Day approaches: Just the rumblings of an imminent crisis or potentially surging gas prices could hurt the electoral appeal of Democrats, who are already suffering from their association with inflation.
The growing specter of wide-scale war in the Middle East is not some kind of approaching weather event or natural disaster. It is the product of choices. And our president has made some terrible ones that helped us get to this point. After Hamas killed around 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, it was inevitable that Israel was going to retaliate. What was not inevitable was that the Biden administration would give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a far-right leader with neocolonial extremists in his Cabinet, carte blanche to retaliate against the entire population of the Gaza Strip however he wished to.
The Biden administration has appeared to use leaks and statements to suggest that it believes Netanyahu has gone too far in his brutality toward the civilians of Gaza, but in practice it has greenlighted all of Israel’s actions. The Biden administration has been a staunch defender of Israel at the United Nations, shielding it from legally binding Security Council resolutions. It has given Israel billions in military aid. Aside from a brief, temporary and ultimately symbolic pause in arms transfers, Biden has not threatened to cut off aid, or even condition aid on Israel’s compliance with international or U.S. law. The Biden administration, to keep weapons shipments intact under U.S. law, has reportedly ignored findings from the State Department and USAID that Israel had blocked U.S. humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Netanyahu’s takeaway from Biden’s support is that he can take U.S. backing as unconditional and do whatever he wants not only toward Palestinian civilians, but in the region more broadly. Netanyahu has embraced a “shoot first, notify Biden later” attitude toward many high-stakes and escalatory actions against adversaries in the Middle East, such as when Israel struck the Syrian headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Damascus, or when Israel leveled several buildings in Beirut in a bombing that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s operations in Lebanon — against Biden's public wishes — have already displaced close to a quarter of Lebanon’s population and killed hundreds of civilians, according to PBS' NewsHour. And Netanyahu has demonstrated he feels no obligation to listen to U.S. calls to wind down the bloody military operation in Gaza, which is why Israel and Hezbollah have locked horns in the last year.
As Atlantic Council fellow Nicholas Blanford explained to me, Israel’s escalation with its adversaries in the region increases the likelihood of a regional war. If, for example, Israel decides to entrench itself in a more wide-scale war in Lebanon, it could nudge Hezbollah to unleash its most destructive firepower, such as its precision-guided missiles that it has so far refrained from using. And if Iran were to fear that Israel is about to wipe out Hezbollah at some point, it could “activate all [its] proxies across the region” against Israel, dragging several other countries directly into the conflict.
We don't know exactly how Netanyahu would act if Biden were to condition or cut off aid to Israel. But given that U.S. military support is vital to Israel's national security and military operations, Netanyahu would be far more likely to behave conservatively in his military campaigns and targeted strikes across the region.
Netanyahu is aware that the timing of his more aggressive maneuvering comes at an acutely sensitive time for Biden politically. Biden is likely in the weeks before Election Day to be particularly hesitant to initiate an upheaval in U.S.-Israeli relations by cutting off weapons shipments or demanding that Netanyahu act like more of a cooperative U.S. ally. But at the same time Biden looks rudderless and weak by not doing anything.
When asked at a press conference Friday if he believed Netanyahu was trying to influence the U.S. election, Biden said, “I don’t know." And when asked by another reporter, “How long are you OK with Israel bombing Lebanon? What is acceptable to you?” he smiled and walked away from the podium.
Biden has gotten himself into this bind through his record of unconditional support for Israel, no matter how badly it deviates from basic morality in warfare, international law or U.S. interests. One can’t help but wonder if Biden’s poor leadership in the Middle East might just mark a historic first: a president inadvertently springing an October surprise on his own party.
