The 119th Congress was sworn in on Friday, giving Republicans complete control over the federal legislature. On Jan. 20, President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration will complete the GOP trifecta. With that in mind, I’m going to say something that may cause you to groan and roll your eyes: It’s time to start thinking about the 2026 midterms.
I’m going to say something that may cause you to groan and roll your eyes: It’s time to start thinking about the 2026 midterms.
I want to stress, though, that I do not disagree with any negative response you may have at thinking about the next election. I understand that the last election is barely in the rearview mirror. You may think I’m looking almost two years ahead because I’m a political writer who benefits from the permanent campaign. But I think that, in this case, looking forward is the only way to get through the next two years with anything resembling optimism.
The GOP’s window to act is narrower than it may look. As I noted four years ago when Democrats held a trifecta, the clock was set to two years, not four, for them to cross off the things on their agenda. And while the Democrats scored some major wins, the GOP managed to eke out enough of a win in the 2022 midterms to retake the House. In 2026, Democrats only need to flip three seats to regain control of the House, and history would say that’s a cakewalk for the party out of power.
Republicans are also cognizant that voters will be looking to see what they’ve accomplished in those two years. As it stands, their numbers give them little wiggle room to make the major changes they’ve promised. And unlike eight years ago, it’s the House (rather than the Senate) that’s poised to be the biggest likely choke point for Trump’s agenda.
Incoming Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., will control 53 seats, not enough to guarantee that he overcomes Democratic opposition. Thune and other Republicans have said that they have no interest in blowing up the filibuster’s two-thirds requirement for legislation to proceed to a vote, even if it will slow the pace of Trump’s agenda. (Trump was already venting about Republicans’ unwillingness to abandon the filibuster on his Truth Social account Monday.)
But most of what the GOP is hoping to accomplish legislatively can be done through a process known as “budget reconciliation.” It’s a handy little trick that lets a bill pass with a simple majority vote in both chambers, bypassing the filibuster entirely. It only works on fiscal-related bills, but when renewing the Trump tax cuts and undoing much of Biden’s work is the top priority, that’s perfectly fine.
The problem, though, is that House Republicans will have an extremely narrow margin to work with and a right flank that is more than willing to blow up deals. There’s also been early dustups between GOP House and Senate leaders about the legislative calendar. That means Republicans will have to find areas where there’s near unanimity not just between the two sides of the Capitol but in their own fractured caucus.
House Democrats can stand back and let the GOP fight it out among themselves rather than riding in to save them — but that might not be the plan. As ABC News reported last month, the caucus seems keen to find areas in which they can work with Republicans — or at least it’s keen to give the impression that the possibility is there:
“People want to see government work, and we’re going to hold Republicans accountable for whether they’re willing to help move things forward for the American people. So, if they aren’t, then absolutely, that will impact them at the ballot box,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., who led House Democrats’ campaign arm in 2024 and will do so again for the 2026 midterms.
“I think we are telling them that we’re here to govern,” DelBene added. “And I guess the question is, are they serious about governing?” Part of DelBene’s thinking is based on the raw numbers that she’s working with ahead of 2026. As NBC News reported last month, “the next battle for the House will be fought mostly in districts that Trump carried.” Coupled with that fact is that the Senate’s staggered re-election cycle will see Republicans in a good place to hold their majority. Democrats are looking at a tough battle ahead. But is making a show of bipartisan cooperation really the best way forward at a time when the Democrats’ brand is struggling and the messaging they’ve been putting out there doesn’t seem to be connecting with struggling voters? I get the impulse to want to seem like a positive force amid mass chaos. I likewise understand the soul-searching that Democratic strategists and operatives are doing to determine how to win back voters who threw in for Trump. But the answer can’t be to make the GOP seem competent. Democrats won’t get any credit for providing whatever small wins they might get from that level of engagement, not when it’s Trump whose name remains atop the marquee. Instead, as my colleague Ryan Teague Beckwith has argued, Democrats should take a cue from their stonewalling GOP colleagues. While efforts of bipartisanship may get them a cookie from the political press, it does little to help them reclaim the majority. Their overwhelming priority should be drawing contrasts between themselves and the Republicans, not blurring the lines between the parties. Should the GOP under Trump succeed in slashing the social safety net and otherwise destabilizing the American economy, the landscape will likely look much rosier for the opposition party. It’s important that Democrats’ fingerprints not be all over the scene of the crime of a crashed economy and other results of Trump’s autocratic impulses. An alternative vision and a refusal to cooperate with the party slashing needed programs would set the country on a path toward better policy. Standing firm against the majority and good policy outcomes don’t always align. But when they do, it’s an opportunity that can’t be passed up. Congressional Democrats need to be playing the long game, starting immediately. All of which, unfortunately, means that the time to start thinking about November 2026 is now, January 2025.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He focuses on politics and policymaking at the federal level, including Congress and the White House. 
