Right now, the biggest political story in America is the Jeffrey Epstein saga. But the most important political story in America is something else altogether — the cratering popularity of President Donald Trump.
Look at any polling aggregator you want, Real Clear Politics, Nate Silver or Elliott Morris. They all agree: Trump is more unpopular than at any other point in his presidency, and the numbers are getting worse.
Indeed, according to a new Gallup poll that dropped Thursday morning, Trump’s approval is at a rock bottom 37% — and a measly 29% among independents.
But what is most striking about Trump’s sinking approval ratings are the reasons he’s unpopular. During the 2024 campaign, Trump ran on a platform of anti-immigrant zealotry and mass deportation. He boasted that he was the man who could fix the U.S. economy and build support over public anger about rising inflation under President Joe Biden.
Yet, on both issues, the American people are souring on the president.
What is most striking about Trump’s sinking approval ratings are the reasons he’s unpopular.
Take immigration, which was the centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 campaign message and arguably the previous White House’s most significant political vulnerability.
A recent Gallup poll gives Trump a 35% approval rating on immigration policy — with 62% disapproving. In fact, twice as many U.S. adults strongly disapprove of his handling of the issue as approve of it.
According to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, there’s been a 20-point shift in support of Trump’s mass deportations policy since February — with approval of the policy dropping from 59% to 49% and disapproval rising from 41% to 51%. Even more notable is a 10-point shift against the White House on mass deportations since June. It appears that as Americans see and hear more and more news stories about the excesses of ICE agents and the tales of those caught up in Trump’s deportation dragnet, the less they like it.
CNN polling finds a similar result, with nearly 6 in 10 U.S. adults opposed to deporting noncriminal undocumented immigrants and 57% balking at the construction of “detention facilities” like the so-called Alligator Alcatraz facility in Florida.
But as bad as Trump’s numbers are on immigration, they are arguably worse on the economy.
A CBS News/YouGov poll from earlier in the week asked U.S. adults how Trump’s policies were affecting them financially — 18% said better off, 32% said the same, and half, 50%, said worse.
As inflation steadily rises, there are signs that people are holding Trump responsible for the increasing prices. The same poll found that a whopping 62% believe Trump’s policies are making food and groceries more expensive.
Indeed, when it comes to tariffs, the centerpiece of Trump’s economic agenda, voters — even those who previously supported Trump — aren’t buying what he’s selling. Trump’s numbers on inflation and rising prices have been among his worst-polling policy issues. A Fox News poll released Tuesday found 62% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation.
What about the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which was enacted earlier this month? For the White House, perhaps the less said, the better, but when 6 in 10 Americans — and even 1 in 5 Republicans — oppose the bill, that’s never a good sign.
Keep in mind, this isn’t even taking into account the Jeffrey Epstein controversy, which is a polling abyss for Trump. A Quinnipiac University survey from last week showed 63% of voters disapproved of how the White House has handled the emerging scandal. Even among Republicans, only 40% gave Trump high marks on the issue.
If there’s one story that has the potential to weaken Trump’s bedrock support in MAGA world, it is the Epstein scandal. However, even if Trump can maintain his support among this seemingly unmovable cohort, the president and his party are wading into treacherous political waters.
During his first term in office, Trump was often where he is today in public opinion polling — the low to mid-40s. Keep in mind, however, those lousy numbers contributed to the Republican wipeout in the 2018 midterms and Trump’s re-election defeat in 2020.
The president and his party are wading into treacherous political waters.
If Trump can’t move the needle between now and next year, the GOP could be looking at a midterm repeat defeat at the ballot box. And there’s little reason to expect the president to shift course. With the infusion of billions of dollars to Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the tax bill, Trump is looking to double down on his agenda of mass deportations. There’s no indication that he’s backing off his tariff threats, and the worst elements of the Big, Beautiful Bill have yet to trickle down to voters.
If the Republican Party’s political prospects continue to look dire, one can expect to see the impact play out in GOP fundraising and recruitment of candidates and potentially more retirements. Conversely, Democrats will have a far easier time recruiting viable candidates to challenge Republicans and raise the money they need to compete effectively.
For much of the past year, political pundits have been focused on the Democratic Party’s need to find a new message after the trauma of the 2024 election. However, it seems increasingly clear that — as was the case in Trump’s first term — “we’re not President Donald Trump” will likely have a pretty good ring to it.
