In race for House speaker, Jim Jordan falls short on first ballot

As the day got underway, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appeared on Fox Business and told viewers what he expected to see when Jim Jordan’s bid for speaker came to the floor. “My prediction is Jim will win this, and even on the first round of votes,” the California Republican declared.

McCarthy has never been especially good at counting votes, and as it turns out, this has become his latest failed prediction. On the first ballot, the right-wing Judiciary Committee chairman received more votes than might've been predicted late last week, but his bid nevertheless fell short.

The final tally: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries finished with 212 votes, while Jordan finished with 200. To succeed, a candidate needed 217.

Others receiving votes were McCarthy, who received six votes; former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who received three votes; and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who finished with seven votes. Rep. Mike Garcia, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Rep. Tom Cole, and Rep. Thomas Massie each received one vote.

For comparison purposes, when McCarthy struggled on his first ballot in January, he finished with 203 votes. Jordan fell a few votes shy of that threshold — and for McCarthy, 15 difficult rounds soon followed.

As for who broke ranks, if my back-of-the-envelope notes are correct, these are the Republican members who ended up voting for someone other than Jordan:

1. Don Bacon of Nebraska (voted for McCarthy)
2. Ken Buck of Colorado (voted for Emmer)
3. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon (voted for McCarthy)
4. Anthony D’Esposito of New York (voted for Zeldin)
5. Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida (voted for Scalise)
6. Jake Ellzey of Texas (voted for Garcia)
7. Andrew Garbarino of New York (voted for Zeldin)
8. Carlos Giménez of Florida (voted for McCarthy)
9. Tony Gonzales of Texas (voted for Scalise)
10. Kay Granger of Texas (voted for Scalise)
11. John James of Michigan (voted for Cole)
12. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania (voted for Scalise)
13. Jen Kiggans of Virginia (voted for McCarthy)
14. Mike Lawler of New York (voted for McCarthy)
15. Nick LaLota of New York (voted for Zeldin)
16. Doug LaMalfa of California (voted for McCarthy)
17. John Rutherford of Pennsylvania (voted for Scalise)
18. Michael Simpson of Idaho (voted for Scalise)
19. Victoria Spartz of Indian (voted for Massie)
20. Steve Womack of Arkansas (voted for Scalise)

Jordan could only lose a handful of his GOP colleagues. This was ... more than a handful.

There was ample talk ahead of the vote that if Jordan fell short by a few votes on the first ballot, party leaders would see that as encouraging: Changing three or four members' minds isn't an intimidating challenge. But 20 defections is a qualitatively and quantitatively different matter.

After Jordan's failure on the first ballot, the House recessed, though it could be called back into session at any time.

As for a second ballot, which will likely happen soon, it's difficult to predict an outcome. Jordan and his allies are no doubt hoping that his intraparty opponents merely cast protest votes in the first round, but they’ll now return to the GOP fold after having made their point.

Jordan's GOP opponents, meanwhile, have the opposite wishes in mind: With a surprising number of Republicans balking on the first ballot, the argument goes, now is the time to flip some additional skeptics, end Jordan's candidacy, and choose a better nominee.