Why McCarthy has reason to worry about Gaetz’s move against him

It’s likely that much of the public, even those who try to keep an eye on Congress, has never heard of motions to vacate the chair. That’s probably because they’re extremely rare.

In the early 20th century, House Speaker Joseph Cannon, whom some nicknamed “Czar Cannon,” had amassed so much power over the functioning of his chamber that many members plotted to oust him. The Illinois Republican, recognizing the direction of the prevailing political winds, agreed to a series of reforms and loosened the reins. Soon after, as a way of solidifying his support in the wake of the changes he adopted, Cannon filed a motion to vacate against himself. It failed, as planned, and he kept his gavel.

Nearly nine decades later, as House Speaker Newt Gingrich struggled, his GOP opponents plotted to use a motion to vacate against him. They ultimately failed to follow through, but the effort left the Georgia Republican weakened, and Gingrich resigned about a year later.

In 2015, far-right Republicans also took steps toward using the same procedural tool against House Speaker John Boehner. They also failed to follow through, but as was the case with Gingrich, the process weakened the incumbent, and the Ohio Republican walked away from Capitol Hill in the middle of his term, just months after surviving the plot.

Now, the small list has a new addition. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz vowed to go after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy with a motion to vacate, and as my MSNBC colleague Ja’han Jones explained overnight, the Floridian did more than just talk about the plan.

The congressman’s motion has started the clock, giving the House two days to weigh in on the future of McCarthy’s speakership. (For those readers who care about procedural details, The Washington Post published a fantastic chart explaining how the process is likely to unfold on the House floor.)

The outcome will be a simple matter of majority-rule: If a majority of House members want to strip McCarthy of his gavel, this process will give them an opportunity to do so. That said, as of now, the conventional wisdom suggests the votes are not yet there, and even Gaetz conceded late yesterday that the incumbent speaker is likely to survive — at least the first time.

If McCarthy is likely to prevail, then why all the drama? Why has McCarthy spent months appeasing his most radical members in the hopes of avoiding this vote? An overnight Politico report helped highlight the answer: “[W]hile McCarthy may yet survive depending on how Democrats vote, even a failed challenge to his speakership weakens him going forward.”

McCarthy knows this. In fact, he’s been concerned about it all year: In early January, far-right House Republicans wanted to make it easier to trigger a motion-to-vacate vote. The future speaker, reluctant to have this sword hanging over his head for two years, initially refused their demands, and fought tooth and nail against making the process easier for would-be rebels. Eventually, however, McCarthy caved in order to secure the votes he needed to get the gavel.

Almost exactly 10 months later, the vote the California Republican wanted to avoid is poised to happen, raising the specter of leaving a weak House speaker even weaker.

What will Democrats do? What might McCarthy offer them? How many GOP members will vote against their own ostensible leader? How many times is Gaetz — or his likeminded allies — prepared to file motions like these?

For now, the answers to these questions remain murky, but they’re poised to come into much sharper focus. Watch this space.