Why Republican scrambling in an Ohio race is a sign of the times

Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans thought they’d finally figured out how to defeat Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, the longest-serving woman in the history of the U.S. House. The legislature had redrawn her district; the party had recruited credible candidates; and the pieces were in place for a partisan success story.

Things did not go according to plan. In the GOP primary, local Republican voters rejected two Republican state legislators, both of whom had won multiple elections in the area, and instead rallied behind J.R. Majewski, who was best known for his pro-Trump lawn art. He also attended Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, and “expressed sympathy” for adherents of the QAnon delusion.

After Majewski won the primary, the public learned that the far-right candidate was far from truthful about his military record, at which point the party abandoned his candidacy, and Kaptur won by roughly 13 points.

As for Republicans’ plans in Ohio’s 9th congressional district next year, it’s proving to be an unexpectedly interesting story. Politico reported this week:

It’s amazing just how messy this intraparty fight has become, and the closer one looks at the details, the more it helps reflect a broader mess for the GOP.

Despite his humiliations from last year, Majewski launched a comeback bid, only to drop out a month later. The Ohioan then reversed course again and announced a new candidacy against Kaptur.

This didn’t sit well with many party insiders — it’s tough to put a positive spin on exaggerations about military service — who were delighted when state Rep. Craig Riedel announced he’d run against Majewski in a primary. He picked up Republican endorsements, raised quite a bit of money, and appeared far more electable than his far-right rival who lost by double digits a year earlier.

So, problem solved? Not quite: Riedel was heard on a leaked audio recording saying critical things about Trump, which Republicans are apparently not allowed to do.

Riedel scrambled, endorsing Trump and even running ads on Fox News in Florida in the hopes that the former president would see them. But for much of the party, it was too late: Unkind words about the likely GOP nominee was a deal-breaker, and some of Riedel’s high-profile backers pulled their support. Majewski, meanwhile, suddenly picked up some notable endorsements of his own.

But for much of the party, this didn’t resolve the broader problem. Riedel was suddenly seen as unelectable because he dared to share accurate thoughts about Trump, but concerns about Majewski’s electability didn’t suddenly vanish.

Indeed, let’s not forget that he wasn’t just accused of exaggerating his military service. An Associated Press report noted last year, “Majewski’s account of his time in the military is just one aspect of his biography that is suspect. His post-military career has been defined by exaggerations, conspiracy theories, talk of violent action against the U.S. government and occasional financial duress.”

It was against this backdrop that local and national Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, successfully recruited Merrin, a different state legislator, to run for the U.S. House seat.

The result is a three-way contest between Majewski (a controversial failed candidate), Riedel (who accidentally told the truth about Trump), and Merrin (who has to quickly put together a credible political operation and appeal to insiders who've already made other endorsements), none of whom appears likely to walk away from the race anytime soon.

In a year in which every congressional contest is likely to matter, this is one I’ll be keeping an eye on.