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In just one week, the new Congress will get underway, starting with a vote in the U.S. House to elect the next speaker. Historically, these votes have rarely been interesting, largely because the outcomes were forgone conclusions before the member-by-member voting began.
As those who kept an eye on Capitol Hill around this time two years ago know, however, there are some exceptions.
Will incumbent House Speaker Mike Johnson face similar difficulties? Up until quite recently, the Louisiana Republican had reason to be optimistic about his fate: After his party held onto its tiny majority in the wake of the 2024 elections, Donald Trump effectively endorsed Johnson’s hold on the gavel, signaling that the GOP would stick with its status quo in the lower chamber.
That, of course, was before Congress struggled to prevent a government shutdown, sparking a divisive intraparty fight, and renewing an uncomfortable Republican conversation about the speaker’s fate. Making matters worse for Johnson, his standing does not appear to be improving among his own members. Politico reported:
House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris told Fox Business on Thursday that the chamber’s Republicans need to consider if current leadership “is what we need” going into unified GOP government next year. “Before the last couple of weeks, I was in his corner, but now we should consider what’s the best path forward,” Harris (R-Md.) said of Speaker Mike Johnson. “We do need to consider whether — if we’re going to advance Mr. Trump’s agenda — whether the current leadership is what we need.”
In his on-air comments, the Maryland Republican didn’t explicitly say that he’d oppose Johnson when voting begins on Friday, Jan. 3, but when Harris said, “I was in his corner, but now...” it suggested the speaker probably can’t count on his backing.
Complicating matters, Harris isn’t the only member of the GOP conference making comments like these. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, for example, has already publicly said that he won’t support Johnson’s bid to remain speaker. A variety of other House Republicans — Missouri’s Eric Burlison, Tennessee’s Andy Ogles, and Arizona’s Eli Crane, among others — have both slammed Johnson and hedged on how they’ll vote next week.
Similarly, Rep. Victoria Spartz, an enigmatic Indiana Republican, has also refused to say whether she’ll back Johnson, and Republican Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania didn’t exactly sing the speaker’s praises during his latest Fox Business interview.
It was against this backdrop that The Washington Post reported last week, “Enough GOP lawmakers to deny him the position have already declared they won’t support him, according to two members who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.”
In case this weren’t quite enough, the incumbent speaker’s troubles aren’t limited to his own conference: Johnson is also facing fierce public criticisms from a variety of Senate Republicans — including Missouri’s Josh Hawley, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, and Utah’s Mike Lee — as well as prominent far-right voices such as Steve Bannon, who declared last week that Johnson is “not up to the task” and has to go.
As for whether Johnson can count on the president-elect who already endorsed him, Trump’s backing isn’t nearly as solid as it was. Asked last week whether he still has confidence in the incumbent speaker, Trump told NBC News, “We’ll see.”
A few days later, Politico spoke to some members of Trump’s inner circle, who didn’t exactly rally behind the Louisianan. One was quoted saying, “No one thinks he’s strong. No one says, ‘Damn, this guy’s a fighter.’” Another added, “I don’t see how Johnson survives.”
I wouldn’t write the speaker’s political obituary just yet. For one thing, a week is a long time in this business, and a lot can happen in seven days. For another, Johnson does not yet have an announced rival, and it’s tough to see another House Republican who could successfully lock up 218 votes.
What appears inevitable, however, is a decidedly messy process that might yet interfere with the Electoral College count, scheduled for Jan. 6. Watch this space.