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Momentum appears to be swinging in favor of Kamala Harris’ campaign in the Grand Canyon State.
Although I’m not one who places a whole lot of stake in poll numbers, some of the recent numbers in Arizona have been favorable to the Democratic nominee. But there are other signs that Donald Trump’s electoral prospects could be dimming in the desert.
One piece of evidence is the budding Republican support for Harris. John Giles, the Republican mayor of Mesa, recently endorsed the Harris campaign and agreed to co-chair an advisory committee for the national “Republicans for Harris” effort.
But there are other signs that Donald Trump’s electoral prospects could be dimming in the desert.
Giles’ endorsement underscores two things in particular. First, it speaks to Arizona’s trend toward Democrats over the past decade. For instance, Mesa has gone from one of the most conservative cities in the country to one with more liberal leanings. And the endorsement also shows that a strain of anti-Trump conservatism remains in Arizona, where Trump’s attacks on the late Sen. John McCain have undermined his standing with some Republicans in the state.
Senate candidate Kari Lake, another high-profile Republican on the Arizona ballot this fall, has garnered intraparty backlash herself for her attacks on McCain and fellow Republicans. Many in Lake’s own party are backing her Democratic opponent, Ruben Gallego. In fact, she might even be a drag on Trump’s election chances.
And on top of that, on Friday, the Harris campaign received a historic endorsement from the League of United Latin American Citizens, the nation’s oldest and largest advocacy group for Latinos. That could prove very helpful in Arizona, where Latinos make up about a third of the population. Recent data on Latino voters indicates that Harris is attracting and energizing these voters in Arizona — where Latinos were vital in helping Joe Biden flip the state in 2020 — and other battleground states.
Trump’s campaign and its surrogates have sought to make gains with Latino voters — albeit in some rather dubious ways. But if Harris is able to maintain the Latino support Biden received in 2020, or even expand it, that could prove calamitous for Trump’s electoral hopes in Arizona.
Beyond that, Arizona residents will be voting on a ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. With voters in other states siding with abortion-rights supporters on similar measures in recent years, this could create yet another hurdle for Trump in Arizona.
None of this means Trump can’t win the Grand Canyon State. But he certainly hasn’t made it easy on himself.