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Republicans seized control of the Senate on Tuesday, NBC News projects, toppling the one-seat majority that Democrats had desperately hoped to defend.
Democrats were always going to be on the back foot in this contest, holding 51 seats and defending 23 of them. It was a foregone conclusion that Republican Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia would win the seat held by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, an independent who still caucused with the Democrats. That meant that Democrats' most plausible path forward was to hold every seat and hope that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would become the tie breaking vote as vice president.
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A late surge to knock off at least one incumbent Republican in Texas or Florida ultimately proved unable to stop Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., from becoming the minority leader next year. Instead, things became clear once Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, lost his race against Republican Bernie Moreno that things weren't going to go their way. Even a win from Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., wouldn't have been enough to keep Republicans from securing a majority.
Though we now know Republicans will be in the majority, their leader remains unknown. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., announced last year that he would step down as GOP leader at the end of this Congress, after 18 years in the role. That announcement kick-started a race to replace him as the new majority leader that will play out in the coming weeks, with Texas Sen. John Cornyn and South Dakota Sen. John Thune seen as the front-runners.
What the GOP's Senate takeover means for the next administration is a bit more of a question mark. Senate Republicans would surely block any Democratic agenda, including potentially stonewalling nominations. But while the upper chamber was more skeptical of former President Donald Trump during his first term than their House counterparts, the number of newer senators who lean more toward MAGA can’t be ignored.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.