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This election was always going to be a tough game of defense for Senate Democrats, seven of whom are campaigning against heavy political headwinds in pro-Trump or battleground states that the former president has won in past elections.
The seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin (a longtime Democrat who recently switched to independent) is all but assured to go red, notching Republicans at least one flipped seat. But in deep red Montana and slightly less red Ohio, Trump allegiance hasn’t guaranteed an easy road to victory for Republicans.
In deep red Montana and slightly less red Ohio, Trump allegiance hasn’t guaranteed an easy road to victory for Republicans.
Polls show the Ohio contest as a true toss-up as Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown battles MAGA-aligned businessman Bernie Moreno. And in Montana, GOP challenger Tim Sheehy has a slight lead over Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, but only by an average of 5 points according to 538 — a far cry from the state’s average 18-point lean for Trump (also according to 538).
That’s due in large part to the profiles Tester and Brown cut in their states. Images of Tester atop a tractor on his farm are not just every-six-year gimmicks for re-election in a rural state. And neither is Brown’s pro-union commitment to the “dignity of work,” embodied by his ever-present canary pin gifted by a steelworker.
To further assert their independence, Tester and Brown have sought to distance themselves from national Democratic figures, including President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, while staying mostly mum on Donald Trump.
Brown, in a recent interview with me, noted: “I don’t really care what the presidential candidates are talking about.”
If these seats can be held, it’s ticket-splitting voters who will likely get them there — the question is how many of them are out there.
“There will be enough,” Brown said after an event in the Mahoning Valley, an area that Democrats held until Trump turned it red. Brown has managed to win some of these key counties in the past.
“I say this, and it’s not a cliche, that people don’t see politics — I don’t see politics — as left to right,” he said.
Talking with Ohio voters in Lorain County, outside Cleveland, at least one voter, Julianna, told me she saw it the way Brown did. She’ll be voting Trump for president and Brown for Senate.
In Butte, Montana, our NBC News team met 27-year old Tim Combo on the second floor of the Western States Carpenters Union hall. “I came up here to vote for Jon Tester,” he said. “And I am going to vote for Donald Trump, as well.”
In five other key Senate contests — Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Democrats have broadly been able to hold Republicans to toss-ups. The Cook Political Report currently classifies Arizona and Nevada as leaning Democratic.
And in Texas, a rare possible pick-up opportunity for Democrats, Rep. Colin Allred is making a true go of it against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, though his Lone Star Senate campaign remains a long shot.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee doesn’t seem too worried, with a top official confidently telling NBC News that “Ohio will be the 51st” seat, giving Republicans the majority. Still, Brown, for one, exudes the kind of optimism that only comes from having outperformed political dynamics before.
“I’m gonna win,” Brown said. “Because of people like this that have stood up for the public, and stood up for workers, and stood up for consumers, and stood up for a cleaner Lake Erie, and stood up for all the things that, that people just want a shot in life.”